Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
508 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Valid 12Z Thu 09 Oct 2025 - 12Z Mon 13 Oct 2025


...Aleutians to Interior Alaska High Wind and Heavy Rain Threat...


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Guidance seems well clustered valid Thursday into Saturday in an 
energetic and stormy pattern with above normal predictability. 
Favor a mainly 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model blend. Significant 
uncertainty develops into longer time frames with respect to the 
ejection of current West Pacific Tropical Storm Halong into the 
westerlies and toward Alaska next weekend with no clear guidance 
signal favored, albeit with some continuity trend towards 
progression in the official forecast. Prefer to increasingly rely 
on compatible 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means guidance 
with limited model input amid rapidly growing forecast spread and
uncertainty, but with impactful storm potential to monitor.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A stormy weather pattern will remain across parts of the Alaska 
domain this week in an overall quite warm pattern. Active weather 
should particularly focus from the Aleutians and Bering Sea 
through Western/Southwest through much of Interior Alaska. A 
strong low pressure system will work through the Mainland through 
midweek with strong winds and a moderate to heavy rainfall fueling
moisture plume in advance working rapidly and broadly inland. 
Upper trough energy splitting underneath over the northern Gulf 
of Alaska could also act to focus modest mid-late week low 
pressure development with some precipitation/unsettled weather 
working across southern/southeast Alaska. 

Upstream, there is an uncertain but potentially stronger storm
heading into next weekend over the Aleutians and Bering Sea with 
another threat for high winds/waves with approach toward the 
mainland extending into early next week. This potentially 
deepened extratropical low should have favorable upper support and
connection to Halong. The approach offers an ample maritime threat
and may then prove impactful from Southwest Alaska through the 
Alaskan southern tier. All aforementioned threats are shown on 
the collaborated WPC Hazards Outlook product linked below.


Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html