Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
654 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Valid 12Z Fri 07 Nov 2025 - 12Z Tue 11 Nov 2025

...Strong low pressure system will affect the Aleutians Friday 
into the weekend with possible high winds...

...Overview...

Mean upper troughing with its axis atop the western Mainland will
be in place late week into the weekend, as an amplified ridge 
holds over northwestern Canada into the Arctic Ocean just to the 
trough's east, blocking its movement. A couple of rounds of energy
aloft on the southern side of the trough and surface low pressure
systems will move through the northeastern Pacific and bring some
light to moderate precipitation to Southcentral and Southeast 
Alaska, along with moderate gap winds on the backside. Upstream, 
the next strong upper/surface low looks to reach the Aleutians 
vicinity Friday and into the weekend, weakening as it pushes 
eastward into early next week. The trough pattern should cool 
temperatures across much of the Mainland and the Alaska Peninsula 
compared to the near term, with areas of the western Mainland 
generally below normal.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Model guidance is remarkably agreeable regarding the synoptic 
scale pattern described above, and even the smaller scale details 
show reasonable agreement. Exact locations of Gulf and northeast 
Pacific low pressure show some minor spread, but typical for the 
medium range. Then it is more agreeable with the recent 12Z 
guidance that low pressure systems moving east from Kamchatka and 
northeast through the northern Pacific (along with their upper 
level energy counterparts) should combine by Saturday to create a 
deep surface low in the 950s or even 940s mb. Model spread grows a
bit with the timing, track, and rate of weakening of the low as 
it moves east, but nothing atypical. There is a general signal for
another low to approach the Aleutians by the end of the period 
next Tuesday.

The WPC forecast was based on a multi-model deterministic blend 
early in the period. Considering the reasonable model agreement, 
was able to maintain a majority of deterministic models in the 
blend through the period, though with some incorporation of the 
ensemble means to temper the differences.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A surface low pressure system atop the Gulf at the start of the 
period Friday will lead to precipitation chances across 
Southcentral Alaska. Moist inflow to the east will allow for rain 
and snow into Southeast Alaska late week as well. Precipitation 
amounts should stay modest in both places. Farther inland, light 
snow showers are possible across the Mainland. On the backside of 
the northeast Pacific low pressure pattern, gap winds are possible
and could focus west and east of Kodiak Island. These should 
generally be in the 30-45kt range, and thus staying below 
thresholds for a High Winds hazard. Another low pressure system 
moving northeast through the Pacific over the weekend will lead to
moderate to locally heavy precipitation amounts for at least 
southern parts of the Panhandle. 

The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should 
come in with moderate precipitation around Friday. High winds 
potentially in excess of 50-55 knots are possible, with southerly 
flow ahead of the low system Friday, and then the core of the low 
pressure system may track over the western Aleutians Friday night 
and east across the Aleutians on Saturday, lingering into Sunday. 
This allows for a High Winds area for Friday-Sunday in the Day 3-7
Hazards, though there could be rounds of quieter conditions at 
individual places. The low generally looks to weaken as it moves 
east into early next week, so wind speeds should decrease. Modest 
precipitation is forecast to move across the Alaska Peninsula 
later Saturday into Sunday and into Kodiak Island and Southcentral
early next week, depending on the low track and timing.

Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range 
period. By Friday, the Alaska Peninsula and Y-K Delta will see 
below average temperatures for both highs and lows with the core 
of the trough aloft, which should last there into Saturday and 
expand north. Above normal temperatures in the eastern 
Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in magnitude and scope early next 
week, but the North Slope is likely to stay above normal (highs in
the upper teens). 


Tate




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html