Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
558 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Valid 12Z Mon 10 Nov 2025 - 12Z Fri 14 Nov 2025

...Strong low pressure system will bring high winds to the 
Aleutians next week...

...Heavy precipitation possible for the southern Panhandle this 
weekend and may linger into early next week...


...Overview...

Weakening of an upper level and surface low will be ongoing while
another upper low that lifts towards the Panhandle from the 
Northeast Pacific. This low will bring a period of heavy rainfall 
(and mountain snows) to especially southern parts of the Panhandle
region this weekend. Meanwhile, upstream, the next strong 
upper/surface low will be moving into the Bering Sea, with some 
weakening as it pushes eastward into early next week and a 
shortwave rounding the base of this trough spins another upper low
that track towards the Gulf next week. High winds will be a 
hazard with this low as it moves through the western Aleutians, 
mainly for Saturday. Another modestly strong low looks to impact 
the western Aleutians by next Tuesday- Wednesday with another 
round of high winds.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The latest suite of guidance maintains the initial above average 
clustering with the surface low lifting from the North Pacific
just prior to the start of the extended and the upper/surface low
approaching from the Bering Sea. Confidence in the timing and 
location returns to average by midweek and the amount of spread 
increases with the next system upstream. There remains some 
variability in the timing of a shortwave as it spins up a surface 
low off the main system and tracks into the Gulf, with the GFS 
still a bit stronger and more south/west with the upper system 
than consensus. There is agreement that another low will move into
the western Bering Sea early to mid next week, with a second low 
lifting northward towards the Aleutians, but uncertainty in the 
timing of this evolution.

WPC utilized a multi-model approach for the first half of the 
extend forecast with the latter half including 25% to 50% 
weighting of the ensemble means. This maintains good agreement 
with yesterdays WPC forecast as well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Moist inflow to the east from both the initial weakening low in 
the Gulf and the next low from the northeast Pacific will allow 
for rain and snow into Southeast Alaska this weekend, with heavy 
precipitation possible mainly for the southern portions of the 
Panhandle. The moisture being transported with be 2-3 standard
deviations above normal and will certainly aid in the enhancement
of rainfall and mountain snows across the southern part of the
Panhandle. Moderate precipitation should extend north towards 
the Southern Coast with time. Farther inland, light snow showers 
are possible across the Mainland. On the backside of the second 
low pressure system, gap winds may be possible and could focus 
west and east of Kodiak Island. These should generally stay below 
thresholds for a High Winds hazard. 

The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should 
come in with moderate precipitation towards the end of the short 
range period later this week. The low generally looks to weaken 
as it moves east Sunday into early next week, so wind speeds 
should decrease. Modest precipitation is forecast to move into 
Kodiak Island and Southcentral early next week, depending on the 
low track and timing. Gusty winds and light precipitation may 
impact parts of Western Alaska too. The next low will bring 
another round of precipitation and high wind potential to parts of
the Aleutians by early next week.

Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range 
period under general troughing. The most below normal temperatures
should focus around western/southwest Alaska. Above normal 
temperatures in the eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in 
magnitude and scope early next week, but the North Slope is likely
to stay well above normal (highs in the upper teens). 

Campbell/Santorelli




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html