Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
605 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 12Z Thu 27 Nov 2025 - 12Z Mon 01 Dec 2025

...Overview...

The medium range period over Alaska will remain fairly amplified 
with a building blocky ridge over the Eastern mainland into 
Western Canada forcing the storm track across the Aleutians and 
into the Bering Sea. A variety of shortwaves look to rotate around
a mean upper low over the Bering Sea, keeping the Aleutians to 
Southern Coast and up across Western Alaska unsettled. A possible 
surface low towards the Peninsula region on Friday, followed by 
another one next weekend, will promote a period of moderate to 
heavy rain or snow across the Southern Coast and into parts of the
Southeast.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

There is some general agreement on the large scale pattern 
through the period, but increasing uncertainty in the details of 
particularly the smaller scale surface lows towards the AK 
Pen/Southern Coast region. Models struggle with these weaker 
shortwaves, even as early as Friday, with the ECMWF and CMC much 
stronger with a surface low into the AK Pen than the GFS or the 
UKMET. And then following that, the deeper surface low lifting 
towards the same region next weekend. The UKMET was notably faster
with this, with the GFS showing two separate surface lows. 
Preferred the evolution/track of the ECMWF and the CMC which were 
more in line with ensemble means (although the ECENS mean is 
faster than much of consensus). By Days 7 and 8, the ECMWF and CMC
show another surface low south of the Aleutians but the GFS is 
much farther west. These various surface lows/upper waves affect 
how strong the ridging is over the eastern Mainland and western 
Canada. For the AK upper and surface progs, a general blend of the
ECMWF, CMC, and GFS worked ok for Days 4 and 5, but gradually 
increased weighting of the ensemble means Day 6 and beyond amidst 
growing uncertainty.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

With weak low pressure systems and persistent onshore flow, the 
central Aleutians through the Southern Coast and Panhandle region 
will remain unsettled with light rain or snow mid to late next 
week, but nothing particularly hazardous or heavy. Onshore flow 
will strengthen ahead of a couple of low pressure systems towards 
the Alaska Peninsula region Friday through next weekend to promote
more widespread moderate to heavy precipitation especially across
the Alaska Peninsula to Kenai region and Kodiak Island, and 
possibly farther east. A heavy precipitation area continues on 
todays WPC hazards chart valid next Friday through Sunday. Lighter
rain and snow may spread into parts of southwest Alaska and the 
Panhandle region as well with this system, and snow showers will 
gradually spread across the Mainland. 

Temperatures could be below normal to start the period across 
Eastern Alaska and the Southeast. The entire state however should 
trend warmer into next weekend as anomalous upper ridging builds 
in. Widespread anomalous 10 to 20+ degrees above normal are 
possible especially for Western/Central Alaska and the North 
Slope.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html