Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
637 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Valid 12Z Wed 08 Oct 2025 - 12Z Sun 12 Oct 


...Aleutians to West-Central Interior Alaska High Wind and Heavy 
Rain Threat Focus Next Week...


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Most model and ensemble solutions seem reasonably well clustered
through medium range time scales in an energetic and stormy
pattern with overall above normal predictability. Favor a blend of
the 12 UTC ECMWF/Canadian models and 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian 
ensemble means. This discounts guidance of the 12 UTC GFS that 
offers a faster than continuity early-mid next week lead storm track
from the Bering Sea to over Northwest Alaska and as well entrains
current West Pacific T.D. 28 much more into the westerlies than 
currently officially forecast for later next week well upstream.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A stormy weather pattern will be in place across much of the 
Alaska domain for next week in an overall quite warm pattern. 
Active weather should particularly focus from the Aleutians and 
Bering Sea through Western/Southwest to central mainland Alaska. A
strong low pressure system will approach Tuesday/Wednesday with 
strong winds and a moderate to heavy rainfall fueling moisture 
plume in advance set to work inland. Organized activity may 
linger into later next week over the Interior and into the Alaska 
Range to monitor as potential moderate system genesis with upper 
trough energy splitting undernath over the northern Gulf of Alaska
could act to focus addition low pressure development with 
precipitation and unsettled weather over the southern tier. 
Upstream, the signal is growing in support of a potentially 
stronger storm by next weekend over the Aleutians and Bering Sea 
with another threat for high winds/waves to monitor with approach.


Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html