Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
755 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Valid 12Z Mon 06 Oct 2025 - 12Z Fri 10 Oct 2025

...Widespread high wind threat from the Aleutians to the West 
Coast middle and late next week...


...Synoptic Overview...

Back-to-back deep cyclones are forecast to track across the 
Bering Sea through the medium-range period as we head deeper into 
October. Widespread gale to locally storm-force southerly winds 
appear possible from the Aleutians to western mainland Alaska 
around mid-week next week ahead of a deep and expansive Bering 
Sea cyclone. Another deep cyclone appears to follow right on its 
heels as there is already above average model ensemble support for
the cyclone to reach the western Bering Sea together with a 
potent cold front sweeping through the Aleutians late next week.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Despite increasing spread among operational deterministic model
solutions toward the end of the medium-range forecast period,
global model ensemble means exhibit above average consensus on 
the timing and location of two deep cyclones that are forecast to
track generally across western Bering Sea toward the Bering 
Straight even out to Day 8. Thus, a consensus blend of the 
ensemble means mixing with some of the deterministic blend form 
the basis of today's WPC blend for the Alaskan domain (40% from 
the 12Z EC/00Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, and 20% 
from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean), with a higher percentage coming from 
the ensemble means toward Day 8. This blend yielded a more 
progressive solution to the synoptic-scale weather systems as 
compared with yesterday's WPC forecasts.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A cyclone crossing the Bering Sea in the short-range forecast
period should be rapidly weakening in the Bering Straight as the
medium-range period begins Monday morning. Light to moderate 
precipitation will likely linger across much of western mainland,
especially the western Brooks Range. Meanwhile, ahead of a 
weakening triple-point low over the Gulf of Alaska, heavy rain 
remains possible at the lower elevations under upslope flow 
against the coastal ranges. From around Prince William Sound 
eastward to Yakutat, several inches of rainfall can be expected. 
Higher elevation snow will also impact the mountains but freezing 
levels will remain high enough that the passes will not be 
affected. A heavy precipitation hazard area is maintained for 
Sunday-Monday on the WPC Hazards chart with a slight southward 
expansion into the northern Panhandle. The next system crossing 
the far western Aleutians will intensify in tandem with a strong 
high pressure system over the northeastern Pacific, leading to a 
broadening and strengthening fetch of southerly flow by midweek 
next week for much of the Aleutians and spreading up into western 
Alaska with increasing precipitation and coastal flooding 
concerns. A High Wind hazard area has been introduced for western 
Alaska for Wednesday to Thursday of next week. By late next week, 
another deep cyclone appears to emerge over the western Bering Sea
together with a rather potent cold front that is forecast to 
sweep from west to east across the Aleutians.

Temperatures look to remain near to above normal through the 
period for nearly the entire state. Daytime highs could be 10 to 
20 degrees above normal in some spots, especially earlier in the 
period. This equates to upper 20s to the 30s for the North Slope 
and 50s and 60s farther south near the Southern Coast.

Kong




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html