Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
754 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 12Z Fri 18 Jul 2025 - 12Z Tue 22 Jul 2025


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance has come into much better synoptic scale
agreement across the Alaska domain compared to this time
yesterday. The Gulf low is now more in the short range time
period, and the guidance has consolidated with the large Bering
Sea low and the downstream upper ridge axis that builds northward
from the Gulf to the southern mainland going into next weekend and
beyond. Therefore, a multi-deterministic model blend works well as
a starting point for Friday and into the weekend, and then a
gradual increase in the ensemble means to about 40% by next
Tuesday.

...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A mild weather pattern will continue across mainland Alaska going
into next weekend and early next week, with a building upper 
ridge from the Gulf by later in the forecast period. There will
likely be in increase in rainfall coverage across southwestern
Alaska on Friday, and another round of enhanced rainfall is
possible going into Monday as well, but not reaching hazard level
criteria. This would also help to disperse more of the wildfire 
smoke across western portions of the state. A welcomed return to 
drier and warmer conditions is expected for southeast Alaska as
the ridge axis builds in. Temperatures will likely be in the 70s 
to around 80 degrees for inland areas south of the Brooks Range, 
and 50s and 60s for the coastal areas.

Hamrick




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html