Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
555 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Valid 12Z Wed 10 Jun 2026 - 12Z Sun 14 Jun 2026


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Guidance solution clustering overall remains better than normal 
through medium-range time scales, bolstering forecast confidence.
A favored model/ensemble mean/machine learning guidance blend with
some emphasis on best clustered 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model
guidanced for detail offers a solid forecast basis that tends to 
mitigate many of the lingering smaller scale system differences as
consistent with individual predictability. This plan should also 
serve to maintain WPC product continuity over time despite recent
but decreasing cycle to cycle variances. 

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A slow moving Arctic Ocean upper low/trough will dominate the far
north in contrast to a continuing pattern with a series of mid-
latitude cyclones slowly tracking east-northeast across the North 
Pacific to the south of the state through the medium-range 
forecast period. Much of Mainland Alaska will be sandwiched in 
between these two synoptic regimes. 

Impulse energy/light snows working underneath the main Arctic low
may periodically work down into an initially cooled North Slope 
in this pattern. However, a warming trend for the northern 
Mainland may lead into above normal temperatures that should 
expand across western Alaska and the Interior later next week.

Meanwhile, expect periods of light to moderate rain/showers 
across the southern portion of the state with energies wrapping 
around the northern periphery of Pacific cyclones. There is a 
growing signal for emerging moderate to heavier activity from 
Kodiak Island to SouthCentral and eventually into Southeast Alaska
into next weekend with closer proximity of a gradually lifting 
Gulf of Alaska system and inflow, but guidance trended slower.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html