Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
738 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 12Z Thu 18 Jun 2026 - 12Z Mon 22 Jun 2026


...General Overview...

A weak upper low over the northern Gulf will be moving inland
across Southeast Alaska on Thursday, with an upper ridge axis
situated to the north across northwestern Canada into the eastern
mainland. Another upper ridge is expected across the Bering, and a
shortwave pivoting around the main polar vortex over the Arctic
Ocean should allow a cold front to reach the northern third of the
state by next weekend with a modest cool down north of the Brooks
Range, and staying mild across the Interior.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite is generally good overall agreement 
on the synoptic scale pattern for the second half of the week, 
and a general deterministic model blend should work well for
fronts and pressures. Similar to yesterday, there are more model 
differences across the northern portion of the Alaska domain for 
the second half of the forecast period. There has also been a
northward trend with a relatively weak surface low over the Gulf
by next weekend as well, but most of the winds and rain should
remain south of the state. The ensemble means were gradually 
increased to about 40 percent by next Monday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Not much in the way of heavy rainfall is expected during this 
forecast period, so no areas were needed on the hazards graphic. 
Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are
expected across central and southern portions of the Interior 
through much of the forecast period, with the highest chances near
the Alaska Range. Lightning strikes from some of these storms may
cause fire weather concerns for some areas. Temperatures are 
generally expected to be in the 65 to 75 degree range on most days
for the Interior and into the greater Anchorage area, and 50s to 
lower 60s for the southern coastal areas.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html