Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
642 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 12Z Wed 17 Jun 2026 - 12Z Sun 21 Jun 2026


...General Overview...

An upper low will be weakening over the northern Gulf by Wednesday
and moves inland across British Columbia by the end of the week.
An upper ridge axis will extend northward across the Bering and
another upper high over northwestern Canada. By next weekend,
another low may develop over the central Gulf, but probably far
enough away to keep its rainfall offshore. Pleasantly mild
conditions are expected for most of the state with scattered
inland showers during the afternoon and evenings.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite is generally in better overall
agreement on the synoptic scale compared to yesterday, and the GFS
has trended closer to the consensus with the arctic trough
compared to its more amplified solution yesterday. There are more
model differences across the northern portion of the Alaska domain
for the second half of the forecast period. The ensemble means
were gradually increased to about 40-50 percent by next Sunday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Parts of the Brooks Range will likely have some moderate rainfall
for Tuesday, but this should decrease in coverage going into
Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be in the 65-75 degree 
range for most areas of the Interior, and a steady warming trend 
for the North Slope and areas inland from the Arctic Coast. 
Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are
possible across central and southern portions of the Interior 
through much of the week, with the highest chances near the Alaska
Range and eastward towards southeast mainland Alaska.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html