Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1944Z Nov 12, 2018)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 16 2018 - 12Z Tue Nov 20 2018

Models and even the ensembles have struggled to consistently
capture the forecast outside of the largest scale. Even the ECMWF
ensemble mean, which had been least susceptible to cycle-to-cycle
variability, has shifted both over the high latitudes in addition
to across the lower 48. The 00Z ECMWF recent GFS runs matched
fairly closely to the ensemble consensus early in the period
(Fri-Sat) which served as a good starting point. Lead system in
the Gulf Friday will lift northward and northeastward into the
Panhandle as its southern portion stretches to the south aloft,
becoming the main system as the northern portion weakens into the
ridge. On its heels will be another system moving through the
Aleutians but with a large N-S spread in track. Tried to balance
continuity (to the south) with the trend northward at a bit
quicker pace than 24 hrs ago. That will move into the Gulf next
Sun/Mon as another system slides eastward along or just north of
the Aleutians -- but with a lot of uncertainty per recent runs.
Wet pattern for southeastern Alaska/Panhandle with the upper ridge
axis near 130W (NNW-SSE).


Fracasso



WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html