Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
748 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 12Z Tue 16 Jun 2026 - 12Z Sat 20 Jun 2026


...Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

There is good general agreement with a closed upper level low 
crossing the northern Gulf and approaching the Panhandle for the
early to middle part of next week. Meanwhile, an upper level
trough will track across the northern half of Alaska, and an upper
ridge axis extends northward to the central Aleutians. The GFS is
stronger with bringing a more potent arctic low south along the
western coast of Alaska, whereas the model consensus supports a
weaker solution. The UKMET is faster with the progression of the
upper low across the Gulf. A general deterministic model blend 
was used on Tuesday, followed by less of the UKMET and GFS given 
the differences noted above. This was followed by gradual 
increases to ensemble means in the blend to account for the 
increasing spread in the deterministic models.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

There should be an abatement in the winds and rainfall associated
with the Gulf low by the start of the forecast period Tuesday,
with some moderate rainfall remaining for the southeast panhandle
region. Parts of the Brooks Range will likely have some moderate
rainfall as well, but not expected to be hazardous at this point.
Temperatures are expected to be in the 65-75 degree range for most
areas of the Interior, and a steady warming trend for the North
Slope and areas inland from the Arctic Coast. Isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are possible
across central and southern portions of the Interior through much
of the week.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html