Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
610 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 12Z Mon 15 Jun 2026 - 12Z Fri 19 Jun 2026


...Rainy and windy from Southcentral to Southeast Alaska early
next week...


...Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

There's agreement on a closed mid-level low slowly propagating 
from the AKPen across the Gulf and into the Panhandle next week.
Ridging over the far western Aleutians early next week will shift
into the AKPen and Bering by midweek. Models are much more
uncertain about the amplitude and orientation of this ridge
feature. A general model blend consisting of the available
deterministic and Ai guidance was used on day 5. This was followed
by gradual increases to ensemble means in the blend to account 
for the more drastic spread displayed by the deterministic models.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Most of the impactful weather is expected to occur this 
weekend into early next week over southern/coastal portions of 
the state. A deep occluded low pressure system will send a potent 
surface front into the Gulf Coast of Alaska this weekend. Warm air
and anomalous moisture will accompany the approaching front and 
spread heavy rainfall from the Kenai down to northern portions of 
the Panhandle, before weakening and shifting the moisture plume 
into Southeast on Monday. High winds will impact much of the 
Alaska Range as well between Saturday and Monday, where ongoing 
fire weather concerns could be exacerbated. Temperatures will 
remain average to above average over much of the region due to 
the Gulf system pumping a relatively warm and moist airmass into 
the state.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html