Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1949Z Apr 17, 2019)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 21 2019 - 12Z Thu Apr 25 2019

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather
Highlights/Hazards...

GEFS/ECMWF ensembles seem reasonably compatable days 4-8. The 00
UTC ECMWF seemed to be the best clustered model with these
ensemble systems. The WPC Alaskan product suite was primarily
derived from a composite blend of these guidance pieces along with
the National Blend of Models as appropriate. This maintained good
WPC continuity. However, newer 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF runs offer
increased system variance, lending renewed caution with small-mid
scale system aspects. That said, there is decent confidence the
pattern over the next week will be highlighted by a deepened and
meandering storm/low set to spin heavy winds/high seas and heavy
precipitation next week over the northern Gulf of Alaska and
southern Alaska, especially in favored terrain. There may also be
additional coastal focus into southeastern Alaska with potential
triple point developments. This will overall be supported by
amplified mean closed low/troughing aloft, with periodic upstream
reinforcement from upper trough energies digging down over
unsettled western/southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea.

Schichtel

Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Apr 20-Apr 22.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle,
Tue-Wed, Apr 23-Apr 24.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland
Alaska, Sat-Sun, Apr 20-Apr 21.


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html