Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
605 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 12Z Sun 14 Jun 2026 - 12Z Thu 18 Jun 2026


...Stormy/Wet Gulf to SouthCentral Alaska this weekend into early
next week...


...Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Models are in good agreement regarding the presence of a deep
closed low over the Gulf of Alaska early next week. There's
uncertainty on the timing of a trailing trough which will
propagate across the Northern Pacific/Gulf behind a preceding
system. A ridge builds over the North Pacific by mid-week, but 
its amplitude are in question. The GFS suite signals a weaker 
ridge with stronger troughing prevailing over the Aleutians, while
the Euro suite suggests the opposite. An upper ridge persists 
over the Bering, while a Chukchi trough retreats back north.

A general model blend consisting of the available deterministic
guidance is used on days 4 and 5. The UKMET is replaced by the
Euro ensemble mean on day 6 due to the deterministic model's
deviation from consensus. The Euro suite is favored in the blend
through the end of the period, with some Canadian ensemble mean on
day 8.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Most of the impactful weather is expected to occur this 
weekend into early next week over southern portions of the state.
A deep occluded low pressure system will send a potent surface 
front into the Gulf Coast of Alaska this weekend. Warm air and 
anomalous moisture will accompany the approaching front and spread
heavy rainfall from the Kenai down to northern portions of the 
Panhandle, before weakening and shifting the moisture plume into Southeast
on Monday. High winds will impact much of the Alaska Range as 
well between Saturday and Monday, where ongoing fire weather 
concerns could be exacerbated. Temperatures will remain average to
above average over much of the state due to the Gulf system 
pumping a relatively warm and moist airmass into the state.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html