Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
701 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Valid 12Z Sat 13 Jun 2026 - 12Z Wed 17 Jun 2026


...Stormy/Wet Gulf to SouthCentral Alaska by the weekend...


...Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Latest ensemble means show good agreement that a blocking ridge
will extend across the Bering Sea through mainland Alaska to begin
the forecast period this weekend. This ridge will block the
northward progress of a cyclone moving generally toward the 
Alaska Peninsula from the weekend into early next week. There is
general model agreement for the Southcentral section to receive 
heavy rainfall through the weekend into Monday with the GFS 
cluster showing the heavy rain farther east than the ECMWF 
cluster. Meanwhile, the upper-level closed low and shortwaves 
over the Arctic Ocean is forecast to slowly retreat and retrograde 
through the forecast period.

Thereafter, there is general model consensus for the blocking
pattern to break down as the surface cyclone weakens over the Gulf
of Alaska, the upper low opens, and the upper ridge erodes across
mainland Alaska.  WPC product continuity is well maintained.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Under the aforementioned synoptic pattern, much of northern and
central Alaska will begin with benign weather this weekend other
than daytime isolated showers beneath the blocking ridge. 
Farther south, a wet weekend is store for the Southcentral 
section as the northward progress of a North Pacific cyclone is 
blocked by the ridge. Highest daily rainfall amounts can exceed 2
inches through Monday, especially on the eastern side of the 
Kenai Peninsula. The rain across the Southcentral should gradually
taper off early next week but rain chances are expected to spread
northward through the central portion of mainland Alaska bu then
as the ridge breaks down. On another note, some gusty winds are 
forecast along the Alaska Range this weekend into Monday.


Kong


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html