Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
704 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Valid 12Z Tue 08 Jul 2025 - 12Z Sat 12 Jul 2025

...Heavy Rain will impact the southern Panhandle Tuesday and 
Tuesday night...

...Synoptic Overview...

A trough that has set up across the Arctic coast will work to
guide a series of upper level lows originating in the Pacific
across much of southern Alaska and the Panhandle into next
weekend. This will support a generally unsettled pattern across
the southern half of the state. Meanwhile, that same trough will
support a stationary surface high over the Arctic Ocean north of
Siberia remaining in place, driving cold northerly winds off the
Arctic Ocean and into the North Slope and the Bering Strait,
supporting dry, but cloudy and cooler than normal temperatures.

A strong low will impact the Panhandle on Tuesday. More on this in
the Weather/Hazards Highlights section below.

...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A blend of the 06Z GFS, 12Z GEM, and 12Z EC were used with this
update. This blend was largely predicated on a similar track for a
low that starts the period over the central Aleutians and
eventually tracks into the western Gulf by Friday, and likely into
the northeastern Gulf by Saturday. While there were of course
smaller differences such as the strength of this low and the exact
placement, these three solutions were close enough in those
details, as well as realistic enough in the track, to be the
chosen model blend. In contrast, the 00Z EC was too fast and well
too far south with the track of that low by Thursday, taking the
low well south of the Gulf, an unlikely solution. Meanwhile, the
12Z GFS was much faster with the track of the low, and was thus an
outlier from the much better agreed upon blend. Given that
scenario, the 00Z EC and 12Z GFS were not included in the
forecast. The ensembles and AI models generally agreed with the 3
model blend described above.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The heavy rain across the Panhandle Tuesday will be associated
with a well-defined low that will start the day over the eastern
Gulf and move inland. Upslope associated with the low on strong
southwesterly flow will enhance the rainfall potential, especially
in the higher mountains of the southeastern Panhandle, near Hyder.
The rain will taper in intensity on Wednesday but not fully
diminish until Wednesday night.

Elsewhere, no hazardous weather is expected.

&&

Wegman



Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html