Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Valid Nov 16/0000 UTC thru Nov 19/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
Preference: General model blend, weighted more toward 12Z GFS and
00Z ECMWF by Days 2 and 3.
Confidence: Slightly above average
The synoptic pattern through the forecast period will feature the
departing shortwaves over the Great Lakes and Northeast later
today followed by the arrival of another positively tilted trough
across the northern Rockies. This system will enhance the
troughing over the central/eastern US into the weekend with the
west coast ridge continuing.
There is very good agreement in the large scale features in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance this cycle. The shortwave
tracking across the northern Rockies will spawn a weak area of low
pressure across the central Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing an
axis of QPF tonight into Saturday morning. There is better
agreement with the placement of the QPF axis, but differences
continue with amounts, where the NAM/CMC solutions are wettest
compared to the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. But overall the solutions are in
good agreement. Toward the end of the forecast period, another
quick moving shortwave is likely to pass through the cyclonic flow
into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. While all of the
deterministic models have this feature, the NAM is much faster
compared to the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. So while a general model blend is
preferred, lesser weight was given to the NAM by day 3.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml