Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center



Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
Model Diagnostics Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0429Z Nov 16, 2018)
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

Valid Nov 16/0000 UTC thru Nov 19/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
Preference: General model blend, weighted more toward 12Z GFS and
            00Z ECMWF by Days 2 and 3.
Confidence: Slightly above average

The synoptic pattern through the forecast period will feature the
departing shortwaves over the Great Lakes and Northeast later
today followed by the arrival of another positively tilted trough
across the northern Rockies. This system will enhance the
troughing over the central/eastern US into the weekend with the
west coast ridge continuing.

There is very good agreement in the large scale features in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance this cycle. The shortwave
tracking across the northern Rockies will spawn a weak area of low
pressure across the central Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing an
axis of QPF tonight into Saturday morning. There is better
agreement with the placement of the QPF axis, but differences
continue with amounts, where the NAM/CMC solutions are wettest
compared to the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. But overall the solutions are in
good agreement. Toward the end of the forecast period, another
quick moving shortwave is likely to pass through the cyclonic flow
into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. While all of the
deterministic models have this feature, the NAM is much faster
compared to the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. So while a general model blend is
preferred, lesser weight was given to the NAM by day 3. 

Model trends at
500 mb forecasts at