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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0446Z Oct 14, 2018)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1246 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Valid Oct 14/0000 UTC thru Oct 17/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend, less weight on 12Z GFS
Confidence: Slightly above average

A large positively-tilted trough will split into two distinct
components during the period: a closed low that will stall over
the Southwest, and a more progressive wave pushing through the
northern tier of states. The models are in generally very good
model agreement over the next few days with respect to the mass
fields and the overall spread between models and the ensembles
remained limited. 

Therefore, the preference is to continue with a multi-model blend
to account for small detail differences. The one exception is
across parts of the northern Great Lakes and eastward where some
timing differences open up between the GFS and the ECMWF and the
ensembles.  A solution weighted more closely to the 13/12Z ECMWF
should suffice.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann