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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1853Z Oct 15, 2018)
 
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Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Valid Oct 15/1200 UTC thru Oct 19/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Blend of the 12Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF solutions
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement continues to be very good overall over the next
few days across the CONUS as it relates to the troughing over the
Great Lakes/Northeast, and the flat ridging across the Gulf Coast
state and Southeast. The main differences this period are out over
the Four Corners region with the details of the trough/closed low
impacting the region here. The 12Z NAM by late in the period tends
to tuck its energy farther back to the west and is a little deeper
compared to the global model consensus. A new shortwave trough
will be noted up over the northern Plains on Thursday, but the 12Z
CMC/NAM solutions are a little more out of tolerance here with
this feature compared to the global models. Based on the latest
model clustering and trends, a blend of the 12Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
will be preferred.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison