Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018
Valid Jul 19/0000 UTC thru Jul 22/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
00Z NAM/GFS evaluation including preliminary model preferences
Preference: 12z UKMET/12z ECMWF/00z GFS blend
Confidence: Slightly above average
Near the western and central US/Canadian border, differences at
the surface and aloft are well within a usual spread depth and
progression-wise with the system grazing the border from Thursday
into early Sunday morning.
In the East, the 12z UKMET/12z ECMWF/00z GFS split the difference
at 500 hPa with the center of the deep layer, cold core cyclone.
There are detail issues on its eastern periphery with individual
small surface cyclones where the NAM was a deep outlier. A
compromise of the 12z UKMET, 12z ECMWF, and 00z GFS should deal
with the above issues effectively, which is preferred with
slightly above average confidence.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml