Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

The latest hi-res and global guidance noted a south/southwest-ward
shift of the axis of highest precipitation to central Oklahoma to
northern Missouri from its previous position of northeast Kansas
into east-central Iowa where areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are
expected. There remains a decent signal for localized 3+ inches in
the vicinity of the Topeka-Kansas City metros. The Slight Risk
area was adjusted to now cover eastern Oklahoma to northern
Missouri while the Marginal Risk was maintained from the Texas
Hill Country to the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys.

A prominent warm-sector will materialize from west-central Texas
into Missouri with a surface low forecast to be positioned over the
Central Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Several shortwaves will
eject northeast within and ahead of the mean trough leading to
multiple waves of rainfall from the south-central Plains into the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Some training potential, leading to 1-3
inch areal average amounts in this region, with some potential for
isolated higher amounts of 3+ inches. Farther south, a long axis
of convection is expected from Texas to Kansas along the cold
front, but storms in this area should be more progressive and soils
are even more dry than to the north.

Campbell/Santorelli


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...

The front will span from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Ohio and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys during this period. Models have persisted
in placing the precipitation shield over much of the Upper Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest region. The moisture and instability along with
the upper-level support could lead to flooding concerns across
parts of the Great Lakes region. Colder air filtering across the
northern tier will allow for wintry weather concerns in the Great
Lakes to Interior Northeast thus limiting the area where flash
flooding may occur/cause impacts. Some areas could see
transitioning precipitation types throughout the event. A Marginal
Risk area remains in effect for portions of southern Wisconsin,
Lower Michigan and northern Illinois where precipitation is most
likely to stay mostly/all rain.

Campbell/Santorelli


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with embedded heavy rainfall
will track across the Southern/Central Plains into the Midwest
during this period. Moisture (with PWs over the 90th, perhaps 95th
percentile) and instability are likely to pool along and ahead of
the associated cold front and produce widespread convection.
Storms likely beginning in the afternoon are expected to get
reinforced through the evening and night hours as a low level jet
picks up ahead of the cold front. A Slight Risk was maintained and
adjusted to span from northern Texas to southwest Missouri.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt