Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Nov 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...

A small Marginal Risk was introduced to South Florida as
thunderstorms develop near an approaching shortwave, remnant
frontal boundary, and afternoon seabreeze. By 21-22Z, recent runs
of the HRRR depict one or two cells with 2-3" rainfall totals near
the urban corridor in South Florida, which could lead to isolated
flooding in poorly drained urban areas later today.

Asherman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Asherman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Asherman


Day 4 and Day 5
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 16 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA, AS WELL AS THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA OF WASHINGTON...

...Eastern Texas/Western Louisiana...

It remains a complicated forecast with split flow across the
southern Plains and northern Gulf this period, with the models
differing on the impacts of both the southern and northern stream
features. The GFS is more bullish, producing heavier rainfall
associated with the southern stream wave as it moves across
southern Texas on Saturday. With the GFS becoming more of an
outlier and with even its solution indicating that the heavier
amounts will likely be confined with the greater instability along
the immediate coast, or offshore, opted to remove the Marginal
Risk from southern Texas on Day 4.

As southerly flow and moisture advection increases ahead of the
northern stream low, the potential for heavy rain is expected to
increase on Sunday. Maintained the Day 5 Marginal Risk, which
remains consistent with the anticipated axis of strong southerly
flow becoming established across eastern Texas into neighboring
Louisiana. Within this area, expect the greater threat for heavy
amounts and possible flash flooding to center along with the deeper
moisture and greater instability near the upper Texas coast into
interior southeastern Texas.

Pereira

...Western Washington...

A second weak Atmospheric River is expected to impact western
portions of Washington in the day 4/Saturday time frame. Wet
antecedent conditions will be in place following an initial
Atmospheric River mid- to late week, with the additional rainfall
possibly leading to isolated flooding, particularly from the coast
to the windward side of the Olympics. The latest guidance generally
agrees on totals in the 1-3" range which are on the lighter side
impact- wise for the region, and amounts with the initial
Atmospheric River have trended downward a bit as well, so the risk
may ultimately not materialize if current trends continue.

Putnam


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt