Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026

..THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS...

The bulk of the heaviest rain from this system has already fallen
as a deepest moisture/greatest instability across South Texas has
been shunted off-shore while the closed low making its way
northward around the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau region
continues to pull away from the area.

There was a minor uptick in areal coverage of rainfall during the
early evening in proximity of the upper low so maintained the
Marginal Risk area. Normally the rainfall rates would not warrant
keeping a Marginal risk area but some of the area has been water-
logged over the past several days and remain hydrologically
vulnerable. But the decrease in rainfall coverage and rates has
allowed the removal of the Slight risk and a tightening of the
Marginal risk elsewhere.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Miller


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Miller


Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt