Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A persistent pattern of northeasterly flow into the eastern FL
Peninsula north of a stationary front near the Florida Keys 
will lead to another round of scattered convective activity from
this afternoon into the evening, which may produce localized flash
flooding. The best chance for this to occur will be across the
urban settings along the I-95 corridor stretching from southern Brevard
County, along the Treasure Coast, and southward to the Fort
Lauderdale and Miami metros.

The ensemble bias corrected mean is showing QPF magnitudes of 2-4
inches from Melbourne to Miami. Meanwhile, the high resolution
ensemble neighborhood probabilities are showing high chances
(60-90%) of rainfall exceeding 3 inches between the cities
mentioned above. A medium chance (40-70%) for exceeding 5 inches
is modeled farther south from the Treasure Coast to Fort
Lauderdale/Miami. Lastly, on the higher end of rainfall outcomes,
there is around a 20-40 chance of nearing 8 inches of rainfall by
Friday morning centered around Broward County to northern Miami.
Bottom line, moisture convergence along the central and
southeastern Florida coastline, combined with the potential for
training storm motions, may lead to chances for flash flooding.
This is especially true if the isolated higher end rainfall
amounts are realized over sensitive urban areas. As a result, a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect from southern
Brevard County to the Miami metro.


Wilder


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...Plains...
The general synoptic pattern across the Central CONUS
remains consistent on a run-to-run basis. That means there is the
potential for locally heavy rainfall that produces isolate flash
flooding from Kansas to points northeastward into northern Illinois
from late Thursday into Thursday night and early Friday morning.

A weak shortwave ejecting out of the Central Rockies will
intersect a slow-moving cold front propagating out of the Upper
Midwest and Northern Plains creating a focused axis of ascent along
and just ahead of the front as it migrates through the Plains and
Central Midwest. Areal QPF average of 1-3 inches remains in the
forecast within vicinity of the front with much of the rain
occurring in a window between 10/00Z and 10/12z Friday as return
flow from the Gulf approaches the front. The magnitude of rainfall
and antecedent soil moisture anomalies pin this into the
traditional MRGL risk threshold.

...Florida...
A threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will linger across
portions of the southern Florida peninsula on Thursday before the
system moves away from the area completely. The 08/00Z NCEP
guidance still generated isolated maximum areal-average QPF in
excess of an inch over the highly urbanized corridor. Felt it was
too early to remove the excessive rainfall area at this point.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

The southward moving cold front which is expected to serve as a
focus for some heavy rainfall on Thursday will continue to move
southward and once again be the focus for convection that may
produce excessive rainfall on Friday over portions of the Central
or Southern Plains. The airmass will be moderately unstable with
MUCAPE values peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range in area where
precipitable water values peak close to 1.5 inches on Friday
afternoon...which should foster decent rainfall rates and the
potential for excessive rainfall amounts.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt