Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST...

01Z Update: A well-defined stationary front remains near the
Neb/KS border east across northern MO and north-central IL which
will sag south overnight. Strong southerly flow from TX/west Gulf
will continue to provide moisture (PW up around 1.2") and
convergence along the front. This, along with sufficient
instability(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will promote further
development as activity shifts east overnight. The previous
forecast is on track with the ongoing hail-dominant northern KS
expected to maintain itself as it shifts east in 40kt bulk shear.
The Marginal Risk was expanded east a bit in north-central MO given
the trajectory of the ongoing activity. The 3hr FFG around 2"
could be locally exceeded. Maintained the Marginal farther north in
the cold sector over IA to along the WI/IL border given
overrunning/elevated instability around 500 J/kg. The 3hr FFG here
around 1.5" may be exceeded.


Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

20z Update: The Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall had a minor
shift south into northern Oklahoma based on latest CAM consensus.

The Marginal Risk was extended farther south into northern
Oklahoma, including the Tulsa metro, as models show a southward
trend of the maximum QPF where the front aligns. The west to east
front stretching from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley today will begin to push southward early tomorrow. This
front will then meander across the Central Plains, east into the
Lower MO Valley and Mid- Mississippi Valley. PWAT values should
increase in the vicinity of this front in response to strengthening
southerly low level inflow. Shortwave energy pushing northeastward
into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support
areas of slow moving convection along this front,locally heavy
rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities
show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall
across these areas.

Wilder/Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

20z Update: Upgraded to a Slight Risk across West Texas into the
Red River Valley.

An axis of above average PWATS is expected to move across the
Southern and Central Plains on Saturday. Upper dynamics will
support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West Coast,
as well as a shortwave trough traversing the High Plains. As
ridging builds in across the east, this will also promote strong
southerly flow and a low level jet over the Southern Plains and
Texas to advect moisture and instability in the area. At the
surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an
initiating mechanism for convection. The QPF footprint in the
afternoon cycle has a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the
Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern
Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two
per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's
Slight Risk across the region. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
was introduced from West Texas to the Red River Valley on Saturday
for the potential of scattered flash flooding.

Wilder/Oravec


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt