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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0826Z Dec 07, 2022)
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EST Wed Dec 07 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 07 2022 - 12Z Thu Dec 08 2022


...North Texas and Eastern Oklahoma eastward into the western
Tennessee Valley...
Models still suggest the potential for locally heavy to excessive
rainfall from parts of North TX into central-eastern Oklahoma and
across portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valley, though the
signal for anything other than an isolated (marginal) threat has
diminished considerably over the past couple of model cycles.
Aloft, a southern stream trough pivots across the Southwest U.S.
on Wednesday and across the High Plains Wednesday night. This
initial shortwave will be moving rather swiftly, given the
increased confluence (de-amplification of the shortwave with time)
by late Wednesday night. Given the flattening wave and more
west-east oriented front, the the degree and depth of
south-southwest low-mid layer flow will be somewhat restricted
(warm conveyor belt or WCB more compact). Moreover, limited
deep-layer instability (MUCAPEs 500-1000 J/Kg early dropping below
500 J/Kg later this afternoon and overnight) will also limit the
short-term rainfall rates. So despite a relatively quick bout of
robust low-mid layer moisture transport, with PW values topping
out between 1.5-1.7", the lack of instability along with
progressive nature of the favorable forcing (forward-propagating
Corfidi or MBE vectors) will lead to a more limited (isolated)
flash flood threat. In addition, per the latest NASA SPoRT
analysis, 0-100cm soil moisture percentiles are running between
10-30% of normal across much of the outlook area. As a result, the
Slight Risk area that was present in yesterday's Day 2 ERO has
been dropped to a Marginal.


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.

Day 1 threat area:
Day 2 threat area:
Day 3 threat area: