Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Feb 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Olympic Peninsula...
A modest, but weakening atmospheric river event will be impacting
western WA late Friday night and into Saturday, with the latest
consensus of IVT magnitudes from the 12Z guidance generally peaking
in the 500 to 600 kg/m/s range before weakening. The upslope areas
of the Olympics should generally be capable of seeing as much as 2
to 2.5 inches of rain with perhaps an isolated max around 3
inches, but the latest HREF guidance shows the probabilities of
0.50"/hour rainfall rates peaking in only the 20 to 30 percent
range between 12Z/Sat and 00Z/Sun before the rain then tapers off
for the second half of the period. This coupled with the fact that
most streamflows have returned to near normal suggests that the
threat for any runoff issues/flooding at least for this period is
very low. Given this and some drier QPF trends in the guidance
compared to yesterday, it was decided to remove the Marginal Risk
which was also coordinated with WFO SEW.

Orrison

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt