Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0827Z Dec 06, 2022)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EST Tue Dec 06 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 06 2022 - 12Z Wed Dec 07 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 07 2022 - 12Z Thu Dec 08 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...North Texas and Eastern Oklahoma eastward into the western
Tennessee Valley...
Southern stream trough pivoting through the Southwest on Wednesday
move across the central-southern Rockies and High Plains Wednesday
night. As this occurs, the downstream upper level ridging
underneath the broad/deep low centered over north-central Canada
will result in upper level confluence and an eventual jet streak
across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 2. Increasing
southern-stream forcing (deep-layer Qs convergence), coupled with
the frontogenetic, entrance-region upper jet forcing from the
northern stream (Qn convergence) will make for a favorable
environment for deep layer lift across the outlook areas. Both the
GEFS and SREF show a relatively quick bout of robust low-mid layer
moisture transport, with 8500-700 mb moisture flux anomalies
topping out between +3-3.5. PW values are just as anomalous, with
a stripe of 1.5-1.7" PWs traversing the outlook areas Wed and Wed
night.

The progressive nature of the favorable forcing
(forward-propagating Corfidi or MBE vectors), along with the
relative lack of deep-layer instability (MUCAPEs generally less
than 750 J/Kg) will be the primary inhibitors to the flash flood
risk. In addition, per the latest NASA SPoRT analysis, 0-100cm
soil moisture percentiles are running between 10-30% of normal
across much of the outlook area. Nevertheless, per collaboration
with WFOs TSA, OUN, LZK, and SGF, given the anomalous degree of
deep-layer forcing and moisture, consistent with the 00Z
GEFS-based first-guess fields, will maintain a targeted Slight
Risk across parts of central-eastern OK into northwest-north
central AR and southwest-south central MO, with a surrounding
Marginal Risk from North Texas east-northeast across the western
TN Valley.

Hurley


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 08 2022 - 12Z Fri Dec 09 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

 
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt