Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sun Oct 01 2023
Valid 01Z Sun Oct 01 2023 - 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
We've upgraded the Florida Marginal to a Slight Risk. There's been
a consistent signal for heavy rain to occur over central/southern
Florida's Atlantic coast for a couple days now, but the signal has
increased significantly over the last few runs. PWATs will be well
over 2 inches with some shallow instability. The presence of a
surface front will allow for thunderstorms to continuously develop
and dissipate through the afternoon. HREF 24 hour exceedance
probabilities of 5" are quite high as well.
...New Mexico/west Texas...
The deep diffluent pattern over the Great Plains will continue to
generate convection in the Southern Plains on Sunday. Instability
around 1000J/Kg and PWATs of over 1" could support some instances
of flash flooding this afternoon and evening. The global models
appear to be well clustered over the Southern High Plains as well,
however the GFS appear to suggest that the heaviest rainfall will
be scattered across the marginal risk area, so an upgrade is not
necessary at this time. Ensemble mean exceedance probabilities of
1" and 2" in 24 hours including the 00z GEFS are well clustered
over the northeastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle.
The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.
The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt