Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. Strengthening warm/moist advection across east Texas
and Louisiana will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity most of the day through early Thursday. Several areas of
2-4 inch rainfall totals are expected especially from southeast
Texas into central Louisiana. The rain will fall in areas that have
not experienced appreciable rainfall over at least the past week,
and models are inconsistent with depiction of any focused corridors
of heavier and/or training convection that could result in larger-
scale flash flood concerns. FFG thresholds are also relatively
high. <5% probabilities are maintained for this outlook with the
expectation that any flash flood concerns should be isolated at
best.

Cook

Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt