Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 00Z Tue Feb 17 2026


...Central & Southern Rockies...
Day 1...

A sharp upper trough over AZ/northern Mexico this evening will
continue eastward tonight and reach West Texas tomorrow afternoon.
Moisture anomalies are high, but mostly in the warm sector.
However, the northern reaches of PW anomalies >97th percentile
overnight over the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos will support
mountain snow that will fall heavy at times through Saturday
morning. The progressive movement will limit accumulations, but SW
flow this evening will capitalize on upslope potential in the
terrain until the trough axis passes through. WPC probabilities for
at least 4 inches of snow are >50% above 10,000ft as snow levels
are rather high.


...Central/Western/Upstate New York...
Day 1...

A compact mid-level shortwave will move quickly out of Ontario and
through western/central NYS overnight, aiding in producing some
generally light snow across the region with the potential for some
locally moderate snow at times that will end on Saturday morning.
Most snowfall is likely to range between a coating-3" for much of
Upstate New York.


...Cascades & Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Troughing west of the BC and the Pac NW will dig southward into an
upper low west of NorCal. This will send a modest cold front into
the Cascades and northern Rockies tonight/Saturday and linger
across the region as the flow remains generally from the southwest
aloft. Snow levels initially around 3500-4000ft will drop to around
2000-3000ft overnight into Saturday, bringing snow to many of the
passes. Moisture will continue eastward to the northern Rockies
(northern ID to northwestern MT) and the typical higher elevations
above 5000ft will see light to modest snowfall. Snow will end in
the Cascades during the day Saturday and diminish (though not truly
end) over the Rockies into Sunday as onshore flow continues in
some form. Another surge of moisture will bring light snow to the
Cascades by Monday with even lower snow levels to around 1000ft
(north) to 2000 ft (south) in the Cascades, but with light amounts.
For day 1, WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are
>30% for Stevens and Snoqualmie passes. Into Monday night (late day
3), WPC probabilities for at least 2 inches of snow are >30% into
elevations as low as 2500-3000ft.


...California...
Days 2-3...

Southern extent of the anomalously deep troughing affecting the
Pacific Northwest (above) will result in a period of moderate to
locally heavy mountain snow for the Sierra Sunday into at least
Monday. A surface cold front, tied to an occluding low, will slowly
move onshore as a 120kt jet streak promotes heavier snowfall into
the Sierra Monday. Moisture will be modest (500-750 kg/m/s IVT and
PWs touching the 90th percentile) with the best moisture flux just
south of the region into AZ. Snow levels will generally range from
4500ft to 6000ft from north to south on Monday, then fall by the
end of this forecast period in northern areas to below 4000ft as
the trough approaches (and lower thereafter). Snow will continue
beyond this forecast period with major impacts to at least the high
Sierra per the WSSI-P probabilities (>50%) that increase into the
medium range (>80-90%). WPC probabilities for at least 18 inches of
snow are >50% above 6000-7000ft or so.


...Central Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2.5-3...

A southern system will likely slide eastward late Sun into Mon
with some light wintry precipitation on the northern side, but
trends are toward less QPF in a marginally conducive environment
and probabilities for even light snow are low.


The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Fracasso