Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...northwest LA...southeast
OK...southern AREle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 131400Z - 132000Z

Summary...Additional elevated convection likely along and to the
north of the warm front stretching from northeast Texas into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

Discussion...This is an update to the meso-scale precipitation
discussion #0119 that expires at 1400 UTC.  Morning surface
frontal analysis shows the primary surface low near JCT at 1200
UTC, with a warm front extending eastward from this low into
south-central Louisiana.  This low and warm front are expected to
move slowly northeastward this morning.  Strengthening low level
southerly to south-southwesterly flow ahead of this low in an axis
of pw values 2+ standard deviations above the mean will continue
into this warm front late morning into this afternoon.  This
should support another round of heavy rainfall moving from
Northeast TX...across southeast OK...northwest LA into southern
AR.

Concerns model wise are that the latest hi res guidance will be
slow to depict this development and eastward push...often a bias
of these models.  This was evident in much of the hi res guidance
with the activity this morning stretching along and north of the
warm front from northern TX/southern OK into northwest LA and
southern AR.

Overall, a very favorable pattern for heavy to locally excessive
rainfall across these regions with an amplifying mid to upper
level trof moving east from the Southern Plains...well defined
upper difluence and strong low level inflow ahead of this feature
and into the above mentioned frontal zone. 

A negative with respect to excessive amounts will be the potential
for increased progression of cells as the strong height falls move
eastward this morning.  There will...however...be potential for
additional heavy rains over portions of northeast TX...northwest
LA into southern AR that received heavy rains earlier this
morning.  Stream flow anomalies as per the National Water Model
are higher across this area than farther upstream...with the
greates risk of runoff issues likely here if additional heavy
rains move over this area. 

Oravec

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34929129 34579056 33269112 32279326 31879409
            31479512 31869638 32249694 32489776 32699815
            32999847 33289877 33519887 33839870 34239720
            34549451 34619355