Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0211
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 PM EDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021837Z - 030037Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will
be capable of producing isolated to widely scattered areas of
flash flooding this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough traversing portions
of the lower OH Valley and Mid-South will be interacting with a
moist and unstable airmass pooling along and just ahead of a
frontal zone and will be favoring an expansion of heavy showers
and thunderstorms over the next several hours.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are in place across northern LA
through through northern MS/AL and into middle TN. Coinciding with
this is as much as 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, and this
should yield a combination of multicell and occasional supercell
convection. Given the moist environment with PWs approaching and
locally exceeding 1.5 inches, and organized character of the
convection, the rainfall rates should be rather high and capable
of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour.

Some cell-merger activity is expected as the convection evolves
over the next several hours, with multiple convective clusters
likely materializing by this evening. Colliding outflow boundaries
will be a facilitator of this as well. This coupled with locally
slow cell-motions in general may allow for some of the rainfall
totals to reach as high as 2 to 4+ inches, and this is consistent
with a consensus of the latest hires model guidance.

Given the relatively moist antecedent conditions and high rainfall
rates, there a concern for isolated to widely scattered areas of
flash flooding. The bigger concern generally will be for the more
sensitive urbanized locations.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36488617 36328520 35598491 34718610 33938733
            32828936 31869089 30979224 30899295 31869279
            32709305 33089270 33989115 34808968 35608826