Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0365
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle, northern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201455Z - 202055Z

Summary...Scattered precipitation on the southern periphery of TD
Claudette will continue to pose a flash flood risk in a few spots
through the afternoon.

Discussion...A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms
continues on the southern periphery of TD Claudette along a
general axis from JAX to AAF where deep moist convergence was
maximized per recent mesoanalysis.  Cells within this axis were
generally scattered and moving slowly eastward within a very
moist/unstable environment characterized by 2-2.3 inch PW and
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.  Low-level flow within the axis remained
confluent while flow aloft was westerly and parallel to the axis
of confluence/cell initiation, allowing for cells to repeat over
the same areas and produce 1-2.5 inch-per-hour rainfall rates at
times.  Despite relatively high FFG values in most of the region
(3-4 inch per three-hour thresholds), areas that receive repeat or
training cells could experience a localized flash flood threat.

The longevity of this risk is in question, however.  Claudette was
moving steadily east-northeastward this morning, resulting in
gradually weakening wind fields within the confluence axis.  Most
models/CAMs lessen the coverage of heavier precipitation through
the afternoon - especially after around 18Z or so.  The overall
flash flood risk should wane thereafter as well.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...MOB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30858220 30608113 29818097 28998204 28998351
            29218480 29388589 29598642 30298761 30458614
            30768463