Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 422
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111554Z - 112200Z

Summary...Continued advection of deep moisture across the southern
Florida Peninsula will maintain additional rounds of heavy
rainfall through the afternoon hours.  Rainfall rates of 1.5 to
2.5 inches per hour with the strongest convection, especially over
areas with saturated grounds, could lead to additional instances
of flooding.

Discussion...After a brief weakening trend from the heavier
rainfall earlier this morning, convection is growing over the near
shore waters of the southwestern Florida coast in an environment
with anomalous PWS on the order of 2.25-2.50+ inches.  This is
slowly moving in a general northeasterly direction, and will
result in higher rainfall rates from Sarasota to Marco Island. 
The ongoing stratiform rain for this region will once again become
more convective in nature as the next surge of deep tropical
moisture moves in, supported by a 500mb vort max.  Widespread 1-2
inch totals have already been observed so far today.

There is also the potential for some episodes of convective
training across the metro areas of Palm Beach, Broward, and
Miami-Dade counties, although the potential for excessive rainfall
here is generally lower than for the metro areas near the
southwestern coast.  There have been some instances of convective
training just off the eastern coast, and these could cause some
flooding issues if they develop over the urban areas of South
Florida this afternoon.

The latest high-res model guidance suite continues to depict 3-6
inch QPF maxima in the general vicinity of Punta Gorda/Fort
Myers/Naples through about 6pm local time, with the latest HRRR
guidance likely overdone with the extent of these higher totals. 
The guidance generally depicts 1 to locally 2 inches for the
eastern portions of the MPD area.  Instances of flooding will be
possible where higher rainfall rates persist over any given area.

Hamrick

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   27568251 27458210 27168185 27018162 26758121
            26708085 26698071 26728059 26748047 26838022
            26757998 26227999 25738006 25328018 25068053
            25088105 25188127 25488145 25808172 26168197
            26418219 26788244 27258266