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WPC Met Watch

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0586
(Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 )

MPD Selection

Graphic for MPD #0586

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0586
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021815Z - 022315Z

SUMMARY...Outflow and lake breeze convergence, along with slow
thunderstorm motion may cause additional cell mergers and rainfall
rates up to 2 inches/hour. Localized flash flooding is possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...KMKX radar shows scattered convective cells over
southeast WI (south from Manitowoc Co) with outflow from earlier
activity farther west converging with a lake breeze boundary that
is west of Milwaukee. This activity is developing under an upper
trough which has light mean layer flow (around 10kt), moderate
instability (SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg) and a moderately moist
environment (1.3 inch PWs are not anomalous, but sufficient for
heavy rain).

Recent cell mergers along a stalled lake breeze over Manitowoc and
Sheboygan counties have produced radar estimated rainfall of 1.5
to 2 inches in the past hour. This could continue farther south
over the next few hours in convergence of outflow and the lake
breeze boundary. Flash flood guidance is generally 1.5 to 2 inches
per hour, so localized flash flooding is considered possible
through the remainder of the afternoon. This includes the
Milwaukee metro area which may see the outflow win over the lake
breeze and shift activity back into the metro area.




LAT...LON   44038777 43628788 42978796 42728780 42488788
            42528829 42938848 43508894 43648877 43628835

Last Updated: 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT