Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030635Z - 031235Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some additional
expansion of coverage over the next few hours is expected over
portions of the southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible going through dawn.

DISCUSSION...The GOES-16 IR/WV suite shows a strong upper-level
trough crossing the Four Corners region and into the central
Rockies. Multiple clusters of cold-topped convection are seen
evolving over areas of western TX as increasingly divergent flow
aloft associated with DPVA interacts with a moist and unstable 30
to 40 kt low-level jet.

MLCAPE values are locally as high 1000 to 1500+ J/kg and with PWs
of 1.25 to 1.5 inches. The greater instability is down across far
west and southwest TX and even back into some areas of southeast
NM where there are a combination of higher surface dewpoints and
also stronger mid-level lapse rates.

Over the next few hours, the height falls edging east out across
the High Plains will favor stronger mid-level westerly flow/shear
impacting these areas which given the favorable thermodynamic
environment should be conducive for seeing additional expanding
clusters of convection.

Heavy rainfall rates of up 1.5 to 2 inches/hour will be possible
with the stronger storms, and the 00Z HREF consensus supports
storm totals of as much as 2 to 4 inches going through the
remainder of the night. Isolated spotty totals near 5 inches
cannot be ruled out where some cells potentially repeat over the
same area.

Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be
possible as a result as these areas of heavy rainfall evolve
overnight and through dawn.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34390122 33830059 32840056 31350136 30370245
            29910343 29860438 30490501 31350485 33250371
            34370240