Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1136
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1035 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

Areas affected...Southeast GA into Far Southern South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071534Z - 071930Z

SUMMARY...Additional flooding is possible into the afternoon over
parts of southeast Georgia into far southern South Carolina
although the potential for intense rain-rates capable of inducing
flash flooding should diminish with time.

DISCUSSION...On-going convection capable of producing isolated
areas of an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will perisit over
portions of southeast Georgia into far southern South Carolina
with isolated spots receiving rainfall rates approaching 1.5 inche
per hour. Large scale ascent pattern remains fairly strong with
upper-level divergence pattern along right entrance of broad polar
jet across the Carolinas.  However, the area of heaviest rainfall
rates has shifted south and east of the area hardest hit overnight
and should continue to shift closer to the coast into th
afternoon.  Still, this is maintaining a solid dual fetch of
low-level flow from the northeast Gulf as well as off the Gulf
stream parallel to the NE FL/GA coast.  Cold pool from the heavy
rainfall continues to allow for a moderately steep isentropic
boundary across the area from SE GA into the Low Country, with a
very slow east-southeast drift due to the responding low level
inflow from the south-southeast. CIRA LPW...RAP analysis and 12Z
soundings denote deep profile of highly anomalous moisture with
values of 2.25" through depth with sfc-850mb over from .9" to
1.15" across the area of concern; so dynamics and moisture
continue to be in place to maintain rainfall efficiency. 

However, instability should linger in an increasingly small areal
coverage which should help limit overall convection capable of
rates over 1.5 inches per hour and localized 2-4" totals remain
possible to induce new incidents of flash flooding although any
additional rainfall ovee areas soaked overnight will likely result
in continued (if not worsening) ongoing flooding. 

Bann

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32658107 32618067 32468052 32228064 31618117
            31288148 31078197 30908246 30988303 31178311
            32088219