Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0213
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030901Z - 031501Z

Summary...Deepening convection is forming in areas that received
abundant rainfall yesterday.  Sensitive ground conditions will
likely promote additional runoff and flash flood concerns through
15Z today.

Discussion...Renewed development of convection was ongoing in
earnest this morning generally from Bryan/College Station
east-southeastward through Gulf waters just south of Cameron, LA
over the past hour or so.  These storms were developing along
remnant outflow from prior convection yesterday morning, with
subtle 850mb confluence aiding updrafts amid 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
and abundant moisture (1.8 inch PW).  Unfortunately,
east-northeasterly storm motions were fostering movement of
convection into areas of southeast Texas that received abundant
(2-7 inch) rainfall totals from yesterday, with ongoing
flood/flash flood impacts continuing.  The renewed convective
development is likely to worsen ongoing flooding and cause new
flash flooding in at least a few areas across southeast Texas
through the morning.

Models/observations suggest that convection will persist across
the discussion area through at least 15Z, with areas of 1-1.5
inch/hr rain rates materializing as convection deepens and
matures.  Localized areas of cell mergers could prolong rain rates
in a few spots as well.  FFGs are quite low (0.25-1 inch/hr
thresholds), further highlighting the sensitivity of the ground
conditions across the discussion area.  Flash flooding is likely
in this regime.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31239501 31069405 30499324 30019309 29689339
            29499411 29629501 29799611 30079670 30489671
            30859634 31209564