Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Areas affected...southern NE into northern/northeastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251225Z - 251800Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain will generate rainfall rates of
1-2 inches in 30-60 minutes and 2-4 inch totals in 2 to 3 hours
for portions of southern NE into northern/northeastern KS through
18Z. These rains may produce localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...12Z radar imagery showed a NW to SE axis of
thunderstorms extending from Harlan County in southern NE to
eastern Smith/Osborne counties in northern KS. This axis of
convection was elevated, located well north of a surface front
draped across far western KS into central OK at 12Z. The
convective cluster appears to be focused ahead of a convergence
axis near or just below 700 mb, with 30-35 kt westerly flow at 700
mb observed via KGLD and KDDC VAD wind plots, whereas KUEX was SSW
near 10 kt at 1145Z. Mean steering flow is from the southwest, or
somewhat orthogonal to the axis of low level forcing, which should
limit the degree of training, but localized short term training
will still be possible with observations of rainfall through 1145Z
showing near 1 inch in 30 minutes has fallen in Phillipsburg, KS.
SPC mesoanalysis and RAP analysis soundings across north-central
to northeastern KS indicated 500 to 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE with little
to no CIN.

While lower level flow, focused in the 850-700 mb layer, is
expected to weaken by about 10-15 kt through 17Z, overrunning of
the surface front and elevated convergence will continue to focus
convection from southern NE into north-central and northeastern
KS, with the convergence axis near 700 mb forecast to translate
eastward over the next few hours, albeit losing some of its
organization. Antecedent conditions are fairly dry across KS/NE,
but some pockets of flash flood guidance within the MPD threat
area is 2-3 inches in 3 hours. Given the potential for short-term
training and expected rainfall intensity, localized flash flooding
may develop through 18Z.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40569947 40499823 40319737 39719566 38869549
            38389611 38419735 38889828 39519874 40239979