Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Dec 09 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 09 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...01Z Update...

The inherited Marginal was trimmed on the western side where the
rain has ended or will end soon. Elsewhere no changes were made.
Rates have stayed below 1 inch per hour so far. Any flash flooding
through Monday morning will be very isolated.

Wegman

...Previous Discussion...

The inherited Marginal Risk area was maintained for this update,
suggesting that any flash flooding should remain localized today,
as rainfall rates will generally remain capped below 1"/hr (with
lacking instability being the primary limiting factor). The
heaviest rains for the period are expected in the middle of the
Marginal Risk area over northern Mississippi, where an interaction
with a front in that area will lead to greater forcing than areas
farther south along the Gulf Coast. Where the front adds additional
forcing, localized convective bursts may be embedded within the
broader rainfall shield.

Hydrologically, most if not all of the soils in the are are at or
below average for moisture. Low/dry creek beds should easily
handle most of the light to briefly moderate rainfall rates. Any
isolated flooding will be in any urban areas, as well as other low-
lying or more flood-prone areas.

Churchill/Wegman


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt