Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A mid-level disturbance centered over the Pacific Northwest Coast
will shift south and east into California today. At the surface, a
cold front will propagate through the Great Basin and arrive in
the Intermountain West by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to spread south from the north/central
California Coast to SoCal this evening.

Instability will be modest, between 50-150 J/Kg MUCAPE, between
00z-12z tonight, which coincides with when the mid-level vort max will
be directly overhead. Precipitable water values in the 0.5-0.75"
range won't be very anomalous (1-2 stndv), however isolated pockets
of efficient rain rates around 1" are possible within areas of
higher instability and PWATs. Upslope enhancement along the Central
California and Transverse ranges could lead to higher totals in
those areas. Lower snow levels on the backside of Monday's cold
frontal passage will see most of the higher mountain peaks realize
higher QPF in the form of snow.

Antecedent conditions from Monday's rainfall will make soils and
burn scars susceptible to runoff today. Urban areas will continue
to be vulnerable. HREF neighborhood probabilities show a strong
signal for at least 1 inch within much of the current marginal risk
area.

Kebede


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt