Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center



Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
New Day 1 Outlook >
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Valid Through 12Z Today
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0828 UTC Sat Nov 16, 2019
Valid: 01 UTC Nov 16, 2019 - 12 UTC Nov 16, 2019
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Nov 16 2019 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2019 


Heaviest rainfall rates are still expected to remain offshore 
overnight as surface low pressure deepens and becomes more 
organized off the coast of the Southeast United States.  Some 1"+ 
hourly rains may skirt the Outer Banks overnight, especially as 
onshore flow increases in response to the deepening surface low to 
the south.  The primary focus for rainfall will be in North 
Carolina...with lesser amounts extending into eastern South 
Carolina or Georgia as dry air in the mid-level pivots in from the 
west.  Perhaps another inch or two is possible overnight along the 
immediate North Carolina coast.  With most of the instability 
remaining off-shore according to the RAP and HRRR, and the 
6-hourly QPF being under an inch according to area AWOS/ASOS 
sites, feel this will be more of a long-duration event with light 
to moderate rainfall rates.  Given the continued development of 
the system overnight, maintained the Margina Risk area despite 
reservations about the rates. 


Day 1 threat area:

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities