Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019
 
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Nov 16 2019 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2019 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS FAR 
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

Heaviest rainfall rates are still expected to remain offshore 
overnight as surface low pressure deepens and becomes more 
organized off the coast of the Southeast United States.  Some 1"+ 
hourly rains may skirt the Outer Banks overnight, especially as 
onshore flow increases in response to the deepening surface low to 
the south.  The primary focus for rainfall will be in North 
Carolina...with lesser amounts extending into eastern South 
Carolina or Georgia as dry air in the mid-level pivots in from the 
west.  Perhaps another inch or two is possible overnight along the 
immediate North Carolina coast.  With most of the instability 
remaining off-shore according to the RAP and HRRR, and the 
6-hourly QPF being under an inch according to area AWOS/ASOS 
sites, feel this will be more of a long-duration event with light 
to moderate rainfall rates.  Given the continued development of 
the system overnight, maintained the Margina Risk area despite 
reservations about the rates. 

Bann

 
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt