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Remnants of BILL Advisory Number 14
 
Issued 09:00Z Jun 19, 2015
 
Advisory Selection
View advisory number:  22   21   20   19   18   17   16   15   14   13   12   11   10   9   8   7   


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP022015
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL INLAND INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 93.0W
ABOUT 65 MILES...32 KM...E OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
ABOUT 60 MILES... KM...N OF RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 075 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS SECTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED JUST NORTH OF ST. LOUIS MO. MEANWHILE...FLOOD WARNINGS
EXTEND ACROSS AREAS OF EASTERN TX/OK...LA...AND INTO PARTS OF
AR/MO. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS SECTIONS OF IL/IN/OH. FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WATCHES ARE
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEYS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT TRACKS
WELL INLAND INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH TWO SEPARATE AXES OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION. TO THE NORTH OF BILL...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT
ANCHORING CENTRAL MO/IL. MEANWHILE...MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGAN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AR WITH A MARKED
INCREASE IN THE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
BILL HAS RISEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND WIND GUSTS HAVE MODERATED TO 25
MPH OR LESS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS OF ARKANSAS...INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI.  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.  2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE TN AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS WHILE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  THESE RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4 AM CDT

...ARKANSAS...
ROGERS/CARTER FIELD                  3.30                     
SILOAM SPRINGS/SMITH FIELD           3.24                     
FAYETTEVILLE/SPRINGDALE              3.12                     
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT              2.94                     
BENTONVILLE                          2.82                     
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT                  2.67                     
SPRINGFIELD/CAPITAL ARPT             2.49                     
MOUNTAIN HOME/BAXTER CO. ARPT        1.93                     
LONOKE 1.2 SSW                       1.74                     
EVERTON 2.1 N                        1.67                     
ST. JOE 2.7 WNW                      1.64                     
ATKINS 1.0 NE                        1.51                     

...ILLINOIS...
ELBURN                               4.45                     
SOUTH CAROL STREAM                   4.11                     
BATAVIA                              3.87                     
ROCHELLE                             3.43                     
MANHATTAN 5 SSE                      3.26                     
OAK PARK 1 SE                        3.07                     
DIXON 2 SW                           2.64                     
NORTH AURORA 2 E                     2.23                     
GENEVA                               2.10                     
ASHKUM 6 E                           2.07                     
CARBONDALE/MURPHYSBORO               1.66                     

...INDIANA...
MOROCCO                              3.70                     
INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT               1.92                     
EVANSVILLE RGNL ARPT                 1.81                     
CHESTERTON                           1.70                     

...KANSAS...
COFFEYVILLE MUNI ARPT                3.64                     
COLLYER 2.1 SE                       1.45                     

...LOUISIANA...
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT                 4.79                     
BOSSIER CITY 6.7 NNW                 3.84                     
SHREVEPORT 5.3 SSE                   2.42                     
PLAIN DEALING 3.0 ESE                2.13                     
RUSTON 1.6 NW                        1.85                     

...MISSOURI...
SOUTH SPRINGFIELD                    3.10                     
COLUMBIA RGNL ARPT                   2.94                     
LITTON AGRI-SCI CNTR                 2.86                     
JOPLIN RGNL ARPT                     2.60                     
WHITESIDE 2 E                        2.50                     
FORNEY AAF/FORT LEONARDWOOD          2.47                     
JEFFERSON CITY ARPT                  2.27                     
KAISER/LAKE OZARK                    2.08                     

...OKLAHOMA...
HEALDTON 3 E                        12.53                     
NEWPORT                             11.52                     
BURNEYVILLE                         10.09                     
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW                      8.63                     
RINGLING                             8.27                     
PAULS VALLEY MUNI APRT               7.35                     
SULPHUR                              7.09                     
MACOMB 5.2 ESE                       5.82                     
MARIETTA 2.8 SW                      5.57                     
ADA 0.3 NNW                          5.45                     
WEWOKA 7.4 NNW                       5.30                     
NORMAN 3.4 SE                        3.61                     
OKLAHOMA CITY 11.5 S                 2.64                     
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT         2.55                     
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT               1.51                     

...TEXAS...
MONTAGUE                            12.50                     
GANADO 1.5 W                        11.77                     
KIRBYVILLE 1.5 SE                    9.51                     
SEALY 0.3 WNW                        9.17                     
ALICE INTL ARPT                      9.03                     
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE                     8.57                     
VICTORIA 9 ESE                       7.73                     
ROCKPORT 1.3 WSW                     7.51                     
MANOR 4.7 WSW                        7.30                     
WF SAN JACINTO                       7.06                     
LUFKIN/ANGELINA CO ARPT              6.98                     
NAVASOTA 8 SE                        6.73                     
FLOUR BLUFF 7 SW                     6.59                     
ARANSAS PASS 1 SSE                   6.46                     
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW                   6.15                     
CORPUS CHRISTI                       6.14                     
HEMPSTEAD 3.4 NNW                    6.12                     
AUSTIN 4.2 ESE                       5.80                     
ROCKPORT                             4.36                     
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT                2.91                     
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL             2.51                     
FORT WORTH NAS                       2.34                     


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER RUBIN-OSTER

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 19/0900Z 36.1N 93.0W
12HR VT 19/1800Z 36.3N 91.3W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 20/0600Z 37.0N 88.7W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 20/1800Z 38.2N 84.6W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/0600Z 38.8N 78.7W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0600Z 40.4N 68.0W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW