PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 16 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007        

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ...  FLOODING THREAT PERSISTS AS HEAVY RAINBANDS SPIRAL
OUT FROM CENTER...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOM.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3
WEST...ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KILOMETERS...SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...7 KT...13
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND
1008 MB...29.78 INCHES.

HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE CENTER OF ERIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CONCENTRATED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. 

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1000 AM
CDT SATURDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU)         9.61
SENS RD                          9.25
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST       8.31
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING   7.52
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA                7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL         4.80
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD             3.62

BOERNE 5.6 NE                   10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT    9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE           9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW	         8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW              8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE                    7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N                7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE                 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO            7.46
HONDO 8.7E			 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
WINTERS				 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GILLESPIE                        6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY 
6 WSW BOERNE                     5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT            5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW                 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HONDO MUNI ARPT                  5.02
ABILENE MUNI ARPT                4.80
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS                3.93
MASON				 3.90 
PALACIOS MUNI ARPT               3.86
HASKELL				 3.38
RANDOLPH AFB/UNIVERSAL CITY      3.27


ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES NEAR THE PATH OF THE
DEPRESSION. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM...LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...33.2 NORTH...AND 101.3
WEST...NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 8 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
 
KOCIN

FORECAST POSITIONS


INITIAL    18/1500Z 33.2N 101.3W
12HR VT    19/0000Z 34.7N 100.2W
24HR VT    19/1200Z 36.0N  99.3W