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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0644Z Oct 16, 2018)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Valid Oct 16/0000 UTC thru Oct 19/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF solutions
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement continues to be very good overall over the next
few days across the CONUS as it relates to the troughing over the
Great Lakes/Northeast, and the flat ridging across the Gulf Coast
state and Southeast U.S.. The main differences this period are out
over the Four Corners region with the details of the trough/closed
low impacting the region here. The run to run agreement is best
with the GFS/ECMWF which are in good agreement with their
respective ensemble means.  The NAM appeared to continue its idea
from the dayshift in tucking its energy farther back to the west
and is a little deeper compared to the global model consensus. A
shortwave trough will be over the northern Plains on Thursday, but
the 16/00Z NAM solution is a little more out of tolerance here
with this feature compared to the global models. Based on the
latest model clustering and trends, a blend of the 16/00Z GFS and
the 16/00Z runs of the UKMET/ECMWF remain preferred.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann