Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 26 2025 - 00Z Mon Apr 28 2025

...Showers and thunderstorms will spread from the Midwest/Southeast today
to the East Coast Friday night into Saturday...

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms persist over the central to
southern High Plains through the next couple of days with a severe weather
and flash flooding threat...

...Much below average temperatures spreading across California into the
western Great Basin with much above average temperatures expanding from
the Rockies into the Plains...

An active Spring weather pattern is setting up for large portions of the
U.S. heading into the weekend.  A broad area of showers and thunderstorms
is expected ahead of an upper-level shortwave/accompanying surface frontal
system moving through the Midwest/Southeast Friday and to the East Coast
by Saturday. Moist southerly flow from the Gulf will support some locally
heavy downpours and the potential for some isolated instances of flash
flooding across the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys through
Friday evening. Storms will shift eastward through the Appalachians and
into the the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas overnight Friday and
through the day Saturday, with widespread moderate to locally heavy
rainfall expected for the Northeast and more scattered storms southward
through the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Appalachians. Storms will come to an
end for most by Saturday evening as the cold front clears the coast,
though storms will continue to linger into Sunday particularly for
portions of the interior Northeast.

Storms are also forecast to continue for portions of the southern Plains
as a quasi-stationary frontal boundary lingers in the region. Initial
scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon along a dryline
through the southern High Plains. Very strong instability and sufficient
shear will bring the threat for severe weather, with the Storm Prediction
Center issuing an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for southern portions of the
Texas Panhandle and a broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the southern
High Plains. Large to giant hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes
will be the primary threats. Storms are expected to increase in coverage
into the evening hours and move generally parallel to the collectively
reinforced frontal boundary, bringing an increasing heavy rain threat. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place along the
boundary for portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas and southwest
Oklahoma as very heavy downpours may lead to several inches of rainfall
and scattered instances of flash flooding.  Overnight storms continuing
into the early morning hours Saturday as well as the expectation of a
renewed round of storms Saturday afternoon/evening ahead of the dryline
and along the quasi-stationary boundary will continue the threat for flash
flooding, with a Slight Risk focused over portions the Red River Valley of
southern Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Storm/heavy rainfall chances are
expected to be much more scattered on Sunday as the boundary finally lifts
northward as a warm front through the central Plains. However, more
widespread storms and the potential for at least isolated flash flooding
look to be a threat as the front moves into the northern Plains Sunday
night.

A deep upper-level low moving through the western U.S. will bring an
expanding area of unsettled weather through the region this weekend.
Shower and storm chances with periods of moderate rainfall will shift
eastward from California and Oregon on Saturday into the Great Basin and
northern Rockies on Sunday. Locally heavier rainfall may lead to some
isolated flooding concerns across northern Nevada on Sunday. In addition
to the rainfall, the deep upper-level low and cooler temperatures will
bring some snowfall for higher elevations of the mountains, particularly
for the Sierra Nevada Saturday and areal ranges of the Great
Basin/northern Rockies into Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories are in place
for the Sierra for snow totals of 3-6", locally higher. Some snow may mix
in for lower elevations of the Great Basin by later Saturday and into
Sunday morning, though any accumulations look to remain limited. 

The active pattern will lead to some varying and notably above/below
average temperatures through the weekend. Another day of above average
highs are forecast for most of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Saturday before
a cold front brings cooler temperatures on Sunday, with above average
conditions expected through the weekend across the Southeast. A cooler,
below average day across the Midwest following the cold front passage on
Saturday will be followed by a bit of a warm up to average conditions on
Sunday. Much above average highs are forecast across the Rockies and will
expand into the Plains on Sunday. The deep upper-level low moving over the
West will bring much below average temperatures to California Saturday and
expand more broadly into the Great Basin/Southwest by Sunday. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php