Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 30 2025 - 00Z Mon Sep 01 2025

...A reinforcing cold front moving across the East Coast will set the
stage for pleasant weather this holiday weekend...

...Wet and stormy weather expected from the Plains to the Gulf Coast with
some potential flash flooding...

... The West Coast will begin to dry out from the wet monsoonal pattern
and heat up in temperatures...

After a taste of fall-like weather this past week, a sweeping cold front
will bring another reinforcing shot of cooler than normal air to much of
the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic the next few
days. High temperatures will reach the 70s and 80s, with most areas around
5-10 degrees below average. High pressure will generally favor clear
weather conditions, but some thunderstorms are possible across the
Appalachains and the Tennessee Valley over the next few days.

The Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida will see stormy and wet conditions as
summer heat and humidity interact with a stationary boundary to produce
locally heavy thunderstorms. Some nuisance water ponding could occur with
any storms that do develop and therefore WPC has a Marginal Risk for flash
flooding for most of the region though Monday. If you have outdoor plans,
be aware of lightning. Greater chances for flash flooding will be possible
across the Plains and across West Texas/New Mexico Saturday and Sunday.
Across Texas and New Mexico, clusters of storms could repeat over the same
areas and bring the risk for flash flooding. A Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall is in effect for these areas Saturday and Sunday. Additionally,
some gusty winds could accompany these thunderstorms. Farther north across
the central Plains, northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota may see
high rainfall rates with thunderstorms that form within proximity to a
mid-level trough and or surface low pressure.  Rainfall rates may be as
high as 1-2 " an hour and the overall storm motions should be be rather
slow. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is active for most of Nebraska
and Kansas on Saturday and concentrated in southeastern Nebraska on
Sunday.

The active weather pattern out West should begin to taper off as high
pressure builds in from the Pacific and precipitable water begins to dry
out and thus reduces chances for monsoonal thunderstorms. Temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s will be possible for the Sacramento Valley and
across the interior Pacific Northwest. The Desert Southwest will be warm
with temperatures in the 100-110 F range. All in all, temperatures may be
as much as 10 degrees warmer than average for most areas in the West.



Wilder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php