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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0724Z Jul 11, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 323 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 11 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 13 2025 ...Widespread storms with the risk of flash flooding and severe weather expected in the Midwest the next couple of days. ...Risk of flash flooding returns to the Southern Plains Saturday including portions of central Texas... ...Heat builds in the western U.S. while the Interior Northeast and Southeast will also see an uncomfortably hot start to the weekend... A slow moving cold front passing through the Midwest will bring widespread thunderstorms and the risk of both flash flooding and severe weather over the next couple of days. On Friday, storms are expected along and ahead of the boundary from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes southwest through the Missouri Valley. Plentiful moisture and remnant outflows/an effective front from storms Friday morning will help to focus convective development, expected to move parallel with and back build along the boundary, bringing a greater chance for some repeated rounds of rain and heavier totals. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect from the greater Chicago area west through the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Middle Missouri Valley for the threat of scattered to possibly numerous instances of flash flooding. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the same region for the threat of severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) in effect mainly for the potential of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The cold front will make some southeastward progress into Saturday bringing the focus for storm chances to the Great Lakes southwest through the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. Some severe weather will remain possible with the greatest chance focused on portions of the Lower Great Lakes, where another Slight Risk is in effect for some instances of damaging winds. Isolated instances of flash flooding are also possible. To the south and west, additional storms are expected along the front as it passes through the Plains. The storm focus on Friday will be ahead of the front across the central Plains and into portions of the southern High Plains. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of the central High Plains and adjacent central Plains where some more scattered instances of flash flooding are expected, with isolated chances elsewhere. Then, on Saturday, an upper-level wave helping to trigger more storms as well as increasing anomalously high Gulf moisture will bring a greater threat for more widespread storms and heavy downpours. A broad Slight Risk is in place across much of the Southern Plains, including portions of northern and central Texas where antecedent conditions remain sensitive. Scattered to potentially numerous instances of flash flooding are expected. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are forecast across much of the eastern U.S. the next couple of days, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Friday, and the Mid-Atlantic northward into Upstate New York/western New England on Saturday. Some isolated flash flooding will be possible. The West should be mostly dry. The heat will continue to build across the western U.S. heading into the weekend as an upper-level ridge expands overhead. Most locations will be into the 90s to low 100s, and into the low 110s in the Desert Southwest. The most hazardous heat is expected across portions of New Mexico Friday, and then much of the central California Valleys into the western Great Basin by Saturday, with areas of Major Heat Risk expected, indicating a level of heat dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air conditioning or hydration. Hot Summer temperatures are also expected across the eastern U.S., with additional areas of Major Heat Risk across portions of the Southeast and Lower Great Lakes into the Interior Northeast Saturday as highs soar into the 90s with muggy conditions present. Areas of the Plains and Midwest will see below average, more temperate Summer conditions with the cold front passage as well as widespread precipitation in the area. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s across much of the northern Plains Friday, with widespread upper 70s to low 80s across the Midwest and into the central Plains by Saturday. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php