Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019
Valid 00Z Sun Aug 18 2019 - 00Z Tue Aug 20 2019
...Severe weather and flash flooding possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into the upper and mid Mississippi Valley...
...Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are forecast for parts of the
coastal Southeast and Carolinas...
...Hot weather persists across much of the southern tier and stretching
into the East...
...Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Great Basin to
the northern and central High Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop near a strong cold
front pushing east from the northern Great Plains into the upper
Mississippi valley and south into the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms are expected to become strong
to severe, with damaging winds and large hail possible across a large
portion of the central Great Plains into the Midwest during the afternoon
and evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a broad
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across a large portion of the
northern and central Great Plains into the Midwest, with an Enhanced Risk
for severe thunderstorms extending from southeastern South Dakota into
northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. In addition to damaging
winds and hail, some of these storms may produce very heavy rainfall
amounts, resulting in flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center is
maintaining a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across portions of the
mid Mississippi and lower Missouri valleys.
Across the East, severe thunderstorms are also possible ahead of a frontal
system moving from Great Lakes into the Northeast Saturday evening. The
Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms over portions of Upstate New York and northern Pennsylvania,
where damaging winds are possible.
Weak low pressure centers moving along and east of a slow-moving frontal
boundary will continue to support showers and thunderstorms from the
eastern Carolinas to northern Florida and the Gulf coast through the
weekend. With ample moisture in place, these storms may produce heavy
rainfall amounts, resulting in flash flooding.
Summertime temperatures are expected to continue across much of the
central and eastern U.S. into the early part of next week. Above normal
temperatures are resulting in Heat Advisories across portions of the
southern Great Plains Saturday and Sunday.
In the West, low humidities and gusty winds are supporting critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the Great Basin to the northern High
Plains, with Red Flag Warnings currently in effect for portions of Idaho,
Wyoming, Utah and Colorado.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php