Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 11 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 13 2025

...Widespread storms with the risk of flash flooding and severe weather
expected in the Midwest the next couple of days.

...Risk of flash flooding returns to the Southern Plains Saturday
including portions of central Texas...

...Heat builds in the western U.S. while the Interior Northeast and
Southeast will also see an uncomfortably hot start to the weekend...

A slow moving cold front passing through the Midwest will bring widespread
thunderstorms and the risk of both flash flooding and severe weather over
the next couple of days. On Friday, storms are expected along and ahead of
the boundary from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes southwest through the
Missouri Valley. Plentiful moisture and remnant outflows/an effective
front from storms Friday morning will help to focus convective
development, expected to move parallel with and back build along the
boundary, bringing a greater chance for some repeated rounds of rain and
heavier totals. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in
effect from the greater Chicago area west through the Upper Mississippi
Valley and into the Middle Missouri Valley for the threat of scattered to
possibly numerous instances of flash flooding. In addition, the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the same region for the threat of severe
weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) in effect mainly for the potential
of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The cold front will make some
southeastward progress into Saturday bringing the focus for storm chances
to the Great Lakes southwest through the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio
Valleys. Some severe weather will remain possible with the greatest chance
focused on portions of the Lower Great Lakes, where another Slight Risk is
in effect for some instances of damaging winds. Isolated instances of
flash flooding are also possible.

To the south and west, additional storms are expected along the front as
it passes through the Plains. The storm focus on Friday will be ahead of
the front across the central Plains and into portions of the southern High
Plains. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of
the central High Plains and adjacent central Plains where some more
scattered instances of flash flooding are expected, with isolated chances
elsewhere. Then, on Saturday, an upper-level wave helping to trigger more
storms as well as increasing anomalously high Gulf moisture will bring a
greater threat for more widespread storms and heavy downpours. A broad
Slight Risk is in place across much of the Southern Plains, including
portions of northern and central Texas where antecedent conditions remain
sensitive. Scattered to potentially numerous instances of flash flooding
are expected. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are forecast across much
of the eastern U.S. the next couple of days, particularly across the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Friday, and the Mid-Atlantic northward into
Upstate New York/western New England on Saturday. Some isolated flash
flooding will be possible. The West should be mostly dry.

The heat will continue to build across the western U.S. heading into the
weekend as an upper-level ridge expands overhead. Most locations will be
into the 90s to low 100s, and into the low 110s in the Desert Southwest.
The most hazardous heat is expected across portions of New Mexico Friday,
and then much of the central California Valleys into the western Great
Basin by Saturday, with areas of Major Heat Risk expected, indicating a
level of heat dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air
conditioning or hydration. Hot Summer temperatures are also expected
across the eastern U.S., with additional areas of Major Heat Risk across
portions of the Southeast and Lower Great Lakes into the Interior
Northeast Saturday as highs soar into the 90s with muggy conditions
present. Areas of the Plains and Midwest will see below average, more
temperate Summer conditions with the cold front passage as well as
widespread precipitation in the area. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s
across much of the northern Plains Friday, with widespread upper 70s to
low 80s across the Midwest and into the central Plains by Saturday.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php