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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2001Z Jul 06, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 07 2025 - 00Z Wed Jul 09 2025 ...Slow-moving thunderstorms will lead to additional threat of localized flash flooding over saturated grounds in central Texas... ...Tropical Depression Chantal continues inland over the Carolinas bringing very heavy rainfall and the risk of scattered flash flooding... ...Scattered thunderstorm chances with a severe weather and flash flood threat expected along a frontal boundary stretching from the Northeast west through the Midwest and into the Plains over the next couple of days... ...Heat and humidity will expand across portions of the East Coast and South over the next few days with widespread Moderate to Major Heat Risk expected... Thunderstorms continue this afternoon over portions of central to north Texas as a remnant mid-level disturbance that has contributed to the recent disastrous flooding remains in the region. Plentiful rich Gulf moisture will support torrential downpours with rain rates upwards of 3"/hr and weak winds aloft will keep storm motions slow, leading to the threat of very heavy rainfall totals. A Flood Watch as well as multiple flash flooding warnings are currently in effect. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) remains in effect through tomorrow morning as scattered instances of flash flooding remain possible. Scattered storms are expected to continue into tomorrow (Monday) which will maintain at least an isolated flash flooding threat particularly for already hard hit areas where grounds remain saturated. The current expectation is that rainfall chances going into Tuesday should be much more isolated. Chantal made landfall earlier this morning along the coast of the Carolinas and continues inland as a Tropical Depression along the South Carolina/North Carolina border as of mid-Sunday afternoon. Bands of thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall continue across central/eastern North Carolina and into southern Virginia with a focus along an inland frontal boundary stretching from central North Carolina into south-central Virginia. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect for this region as very heavy rainfall totals of 4-6", possibly higher, will bring the threat of scattered instances of flash flooding. Chantal is expected to continue northward Monday bringing thunderstorm chances deeper into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding can be expected. The system should dissipate by Tuesday but remnant moisture may continue to lead to heavier showers throughout the region. Scattered thunderstorm chances are expected quite broadly across much of the eastern/central U.S. the next couple of days including along a slow moving cold front stretching from the Northeast westward into the Midwest. For the rest of Sunday, the greatest thunderstorm chances are over portions of northern New England as well as from the Lower Great Lakes southwest into the Middle Missouri Valley. The front will continue a bit southeastward on Monday, bringing chances more broadly into the Interior Northeast back through the Lower Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley/Mid-South. Only a bit more southward progress is expected for Tuesday as storm chances focus along the coastal Northeast and into the Mid-Atlantic while continuing for the Ohio Valley/Mid-South as well as back northward into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Seasonable Summer moisture/instability will bring the threat for heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding, particularly through the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity where remnant higher moisture from Chantal may lead to higher rain rates. Some severe weather will also be possible. To the west, thunderstorm chances also continue across the High Plains along the front and in the presence of moist upslope flow. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center focused along the central High Plains and adjacent central Plains through Sunday evening for the threat of significant damaging winds as well as large hail. An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) is in effect Sunday across the same region as well as northward into portions of the northern Plains for a more widespread threat of damaging winds as well as very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm chances are expected across the Upper Midwest as well as into the southern High Plains on Monday. Heavy downpours will also bring a chance for some isolated flash flooding. Hot and muggy weather is expected to expand in coverage across much of the East Coast and South during the next couple of days ahead of the slow-moving front and tropical moisture from Chantal moving into the mid-Atlantic. Widespread Moderate to Major Heat Risk is in place throughout the region, including many of the regions large population centers, indicating a level of heat that can affect anyone without effective cooling or hydration, especially those groups more sensitive to heat. Progression of the cold front southward will bring some relief to areas of the Interior Northwest southwest into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. Hotter temperatures are also expected to expand in coverage across much of the Interior West and Desert Southwest over the next couple of days, with the more oppressive heat expected across portions of the interior Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin as well as in the Desert Southwest. Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings have been issued for the Desert Southwest as highs are expected to climb into the 110s. More seasonable Summer temperatures are forecast across the Plains and Midwest the next couple of days, particularly over the southern Plains as clouds and precipitation linger in the region. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php