Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 21 2025 - 00Z Sun Nov 23 2025

...Heavy rains to continue across the Southern Plains this evening,
diminishing overnight...

...Additional heavy rain and flash flooding threat for Southern
California, western Arizona and southern Nevada Thursday night into
Saturday...

...Record warmth to continue along the Gulf Coast, across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast...

...Arctic air to remain absent from the Lower 48 over the next few day...

An active southern stream of the upper jet will continue over the next few
days, supporting a wet weather pattern from Southern California, portions
of the Desert Southwest, into the Central and Southern Plains, Mid
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.  The ongoing heavy rains
and threat of flash flooding this afternoon, associated with the lead
system in this active southern stream, will continue across the Southern
Plains into this evening, but dissipate overnight.  These rains are then
expected to push north into the Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley
region tonight into early Friday and then eastward across the Ohio Valley,
Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night. The
greatest threat of flash flooding will be over the Southern Plains, with a
lesser threat north into the Central Plains and eastward into the Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachians. 

In the wake of the first upper level southern stream system moving from
the Southern Plains into the Central Plains, the next southern stream
system will be comprise of a strong mid to upper level low that will drop
south along the California coast tonight and then push slowly across
Southern California into the Desert Southwest Friday and Saturday.  Rains
are expected across Central to Southern California tonight and then across
Southern California, far western Arizona and southern Nevada for much of
Friday and Saturday.  This heavy precipitation will be falling across
areas of Southern California and the Southwest that received heavy rains
early in the week and this past weekend.  This additional heavy rain
threat will pose the risk of flash flooding, especially across burn scar
and urbanized regions.

While the southern stream remains active over the next few days, the
northern stream will be characterized by mostly west to east flow at the
mid to upper levels.  This will keep arctic air absent from the Lower 48
over the next few days.  Most of the Lower 48 will subsequently have above
average temperatures late this week into this weekend.  The exceptions to
this will be across Central to Southern California into the Southwest
where cloud cover and the likelihood of rains will keep temperatures below
average.  Slightly below average temperatures also possible for the
Northeast and New England.  Record warmth will continue for areas along
the Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the next two
days.  Across these areas both much above average morning lows and
afternoon highs are expected.


Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php