Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 23 2025

...Chilly and showery weather across the Great Lakes with lake-effect
thunderstorm bands possible near Lake Erie today and Wednesday...

...Late October near record warmth across southern Texas today...

Much of the unsettled weather through the next couple of days will be
focused across the northern tier states where a pair of low pressure
systems will be moving across.  The eastern system will bring windy and
rainy weather for northern New England for the remainder of today, before
the system lifts north into the Canadian Maritimes tonight and dissipates.
 Meanwhile, the twin low pressure system centered near the Canadian border
this morning will be preceded by a swath of rain pivoting across the
central Great Lakes early in the morning.  Behind this system, blustery
northwesterly winds will make for a windy day today across the northern
Plains with passing showers.  In addition, cold air aloft will accompany
the arrival of a digging upper trough to trigger lake-enhanced/lake-effect
showers and possibly thunderstorms which are expected to be most intense
near and downwind of Lake Erie today and Wednesday.  A cold front trailing
from the twin system will bring some showers and thunderstorms across the
Deep South today.  Meanwhile, showers and embedded thunderstorms will move
across the Appalachians today, reaching into the Mid-Atlantic states and
into New England tonight ahead of the cold front.  The twin system will
likewise lift northward into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday night with
much of the rain over New England tapered off by then.  Colder and drier
weather along with gusty winds will expand from the Midwest and Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday as chilly and showery weather
persists across the Great Lakes into Thursday.  

Across the south, near record high temperatures are forecast for this
afternoon for southern Texas where temperatures will once again soar well
into the 90s.  Due to breezy and dry conditions, there is an enhanced risk
of fire weather concerns across north-central Texas today.  Despite
increasing winds, influx of moisture from the Gulf should limit fire
weather concerns for the southern Plains on Wednesday.  Across the
Northwest, dry weather will prevail before an incoming, though weakening,
cold front reaches the coastal sections by Wednesday night.  Meanwhile,
chance of showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease across the
Sunshine State as the trailing cold front from the eastern twin system
weakens with time.

Kong/Roth


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php