Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 17 2025

...A flash flood threat remains over parts of the Mid-Atlantic Sunday, the
Central & Southern Plains into Missouri & Arkansas Sunday into Monday, and
the Corn Belt on Tuesday...

...Severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains & Midwest into Tuesday...

...Significant heat remains an issue for portions of the southern Rockies
& Desert Southwest Sunday & Monday...

The general flow pattern features building ridging across New Mexico on
Sunday which temporarily erodes by Tuesday as upper-level troughing from
the Pacific Northwest and eastern Pacific plows into the interior, forcing
system progression/increasingly zonal flow across a broadening portion of
the Lower 48.  Downstream, a weakness/upper-level trough remains from
portions of the Ohio Valley southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley
though it weakens with time.  Ridging slowly builds downstream from the
East Coast into the adjacent western Atlantic.

With the upper level trough slowly weakening from the Ohio Valley to the
northwest Gulf Coast, the flash flood threat across the Virginias and
North Carolina near a wavering front will wane from Sunday to Monday.  The
greatest risk lies across portions of West Virginia and Virginia on
Sunday, where scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are
possible over increasingly saturated soils.  Thunderstorms remain in the
forecast across portions of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf Coast and
eastward through portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states in a
moist and unstable air mass near and south of a quasi-stationary front
into Tuesday.

Across portions of the Plains and the Midwest, disturbances moving through
aloft cause both flash flooding and severe thunderstorms to remain threats
through Tuesday, though the severe weather is the greater hazard in the
Northern Plains Sunday & Monday before sinking into the Central Plains
Tuesday.  For areas of the Corn Belt, both the severe weather and flash
flood risks are comparable on Sunday and Tuesday with the severe weather
threat taking precedence on Monday.  The greatest flash flood risk shifts
from portions of Kansas and Oklahoma into Arkansas Sunday and Monday into
the Corn Belt on Tuesday as disturbances within the increasingly zonal
flow pattern tap enough moisture, instability, and wind shear to organize
convection farther to the north.

Ridging across New Mexico and portions of the Southwest keeps the region
hot on Sunday and Monday, with daily record highs being approached if not
exceeded in a few locations.  Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings
are in effect from near El Paso westward into the Desert Southwest, where
the probabilities of high temperatures of 100F+ are greatest.  For the
deserts, high temperatures in the 110s -- with Death Valley threatening
120F -- are anticipated.  Staying hydrated, limiting outdoor exposure and
wearing light-colored clothing when you do, and staying in air conditioned
places remain the best ways to survive the heat.  On Tuesday, a front
developing as it drops through the Great Basin should allow for less
extreme heat, though for just one day.

Roth


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php