Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 17 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 19 2025

...Showers and storms increasing in coverage from the Great Lakes to the
Mid-South...

...Rain returns to Washington state by late Saturday...

A developing low pressure system currently over the Dakotas will continue
lifting northeast across western Ontario through Friday evening, with a
lingering frontal boundary situated across the Upper Midwest and western
Great Lakes region. A new wave of low pressure develops along this front
over Wisconsin and into Michigan on Saturday into early Sunday, which
becomes the next main weather maker from the Mid-South to the Great Lakes
over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage from
Arkansas to eastern Michigan along and ahead of a strong cold front, with
the heaviest rainfall expected from central Illinois to northern Indiana
where 1-3 inches could fall, which may lead to some instances of flooding
where convection is most persistent.

Farther south from the ArkLaTex to western Kentucky, the Storm Prediction
Center has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms in their outlook for
Saturday, with a more favorable dynamical environment in tandem with
higher instability. This could lead to some instances of damaging winds,
large hail, and a few tornadoes with the strongest storms that develop. A
Marginal Risk for severe weather extends farther north across the Ohio
Valley.

Elsewhere across the nation, it will be a crisp and cool end to the work
week for much of the Eastern U.S. with a pristine airmass in place. Frost
and freeze advisories/warnings are in effect for interior portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. Across Montana, high winds will be
possible starting Saturday night across northern portions of the state as
a strong Pacific storm system approaches from the west, and rain and
mountain snow reaches Washington state by Saturday afternoon and beyond.
Dry conditions will continue for all of the southwestern U.S. and the East
Coast states as high pressure continues to govern the overall weather
pattern through Saturday.

Hamrick



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php