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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2000Z Jun 30, 2020)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 01 2020 - 00Z Fri Jul 03 2020 ...Unseasonably cool temperatures and rain and higher elevation snow will continue over the Northwest... ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible in the Northern Plains today, flash flood and severe weather threat from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southeast to persist into mid-week... ...Fire danger is forecast for parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, hot conditions in the South-Central region... ...Another round of Saharan dust to affect the western/central Gulf Coast... Despite the calendar getting ready to flip over to July, temperatures continue to feel more like late Spring in the Northwest thanks to a large upper level trough over the region. Wednesday's high temperatures will not be as cool as today's but still look to range between 10 and 20 degrees below normal. Lingering showers stick around the region tomorrow but drier conditions return the second half of the week. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will trigger severe thunderstorms in the Northern Plains this afternoon and into tonight as a front moves across. A Slight Risk of severe weather is in place, while flash flooding is also a threat with rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches forecast. Farther south, a pair of frontal boundaries will be responsible for areas of strong thunderstorms and flash flooding across portions of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys this evening and Wednesday. Rainfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour within intense thunderstorms and given low flash flood guidance values in parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley, a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall is in place this evening. The flash flood threat sticks around in the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday while also extending into portions of the Deep South. Meanwhile, showers and some thunderstorms along with seasonally cool temperatures are expected to linger across the Northeast through midweek with above normal temperatures making a comeback by Thursday. As the east-central U.S. contends with showers and storms, much drier conditions are stationed across the Southwest along with gusty winds and low humidity. As a result, a Critical Risk of fire weather remains in place today from southern Arizona to Southern High Plains. By Wednesday, as the southern periphery of the western trough lifts northward ,the Central Great Basin become favored for the highest potential fire danger. A Critical Risk has been issued for the region on Wednesday and the risk for favorable fire weather conditions may last into Thursday. Elevated fire conditions are possible as far south as the Lower Colorado River Valley and as far east as the plains of Wyoming. Meanwhile, the heat is the story in the South-Central U.S. this afternoon with heat advisories in effect from eastern Kansas on South to the potions of the western and central Gulf Coast. Heat advisories will drag into Wednesday in parts of the Southern Plains. Unseasonably hot conditions are also expected across the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. While the highest concentration of Saharan dust has dissipated, the next round impacting the western and central Gulf Coast states today should persist into late week. The primary impacts of the Saharan dust are hazy skies during the day, locally reduced visibility, degraded air quality, and the potential for vividly colorful sunrises and sunsets. Mullinax Graphics available at