Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Valid 00Z Fri Jul 12 2019 - 00Z Sun Jul 14 2019
...Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, Flood and Flash Flood Warnings are in
effect for parts of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical
Storm Barry approaches...
...The risk of very heavy rainfall and significant flash flooding will
continue to increase along the central Gulf Coast and the lower
Mississippi Valley by the end of the week and into the weekend...
...Severe thunderstorms, locally heavy rain and some flash flooding will
be possible tonight across the central and northern Mid-Atlantic region...
Tropical Storm Barry is currently centered approximately 70 miles from the
southeastern coast of the Greater New Orleans region. The tropical system
is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it traverses the warm Gulf of
Mexico waters and approaches the central Louisiana coast by Friday night.
The slow-moving nature of this tropical system will mean that heavy
rainfall will last longer, which will lead to an increased flood threat.
Rainfall amounts of up to 15 inches along the Greater New Orleans coast
are likely. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
flooding for the southeastern tip of the Louisiana coast for tonight.
There is a Moderate Risk embedded within a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding possible extending from the central
Louisiana coast to the Florida Panhandle on Friday. A High Risk embedded
within a Moderate and Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for
the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coast on Saturday as Barry makes
landfall in southern Louisiana that morning. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for an area along the
southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coast.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected along the eastern seaboard this
evening as a cold front sweeps through. There is a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for much of the Appalachians and Northeast, while a
Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for parts of the Central
Appalachians and central Mid-Atlantic. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the Central Appalachians
up into the Lower Great Lakes as well as a separate area over the
Mid-Atlantic. Totals of up to an inch of rain are possible for parts of
central West Virginia and New England.
A low pressure system will enter from the Pacific Northwest this evening
bringing the possibility for locally heavy showers across the
Northern/Central Plains and Midwest by Saturday.
Elsewhere, increasingly hot temperatures are expected across the western
United States going through the end of the week and into the weekend as
high pressure strengthens over the Four Corners region. For today and
Friday, high temperatures in the 90s will be commonplace, with
temperatures locally exceeding 110 degrees across the Desert Southwest.
Over the weekend, there will also be just a hint of some monsoonal
moisture lifting north from the Gulf of California and adjacent areas of
mainland Mexico, and this will cause scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms over the Four Corners region.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php