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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0804Z Oct 23, 2021)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 23 2021 - 12Z Mon Oct 25 2021 ...Series of low pressure systems to produce heavy rainfall and mountain snow to northern California... ...Potent system to produce heavy rain and thunderstorms across Mississippi Valley and Midwest... ...Warm pattern continues for the South while East Coast warms up and West cools... ...Elevated fire weather risk issued for portions of the Southern Plains... Much needed precipitation is on its way to northern California as a series of low pressure systems bring an influx of Pacific moisture to the region over the next few days. Heavy rain is likely across the lower elevations of northern California, while many of the western mountain ranges will receive heavy snowfall through Monday. This atmospheric river event will generate multiple inches of rainfall for the aforementioned lowlands and several inches of snow for the Northern Rockies, Sierra and Cascades. The Sierra could see snowfall totals in excess of 2 feet at its highest peaks. Flooding and secondary hazards associated with flooding are a concern over parts of Northern California for the next few days as precipitation ramps up. Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall leading to flash flooding are in effect for these areas as a result. This AR event should last until Tuesday when this potent Pacific system will have moved into the Great Plains. A quasi-stationary boundary draped across the Plains and Midwest will be the focus for heavy precipitation heading into the work week. An area of low pressure will develop along this boundary tomorrow as an upper-trough interacts with the front. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will then spread across the Midwest and into the Northeast. Thunderstorm activity will also kick off out ahead of this system's cold front over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorms may be severe as indicated by the Storm Prediction Center's Slight Risk areas for the Midwest and Mississippi Valley over the next few days. The Deep South will continue to experience above average warm high temperatures over the next few days as troughing in the West continues to pull warm air into the southern states. Temperatures will fall precipitously across the West Coast on the backside of the powerful Pacific system. Warm air will eventually creep up the East Coast by Monday due to the approaching low pressure system and its ascendant warm front. The Rocky foothills will also experience a warm up on Monday thanks to the approaching Pacific system. Elevated fire weather risks continue across portions of the Southern Plains over the next couple of days due to warm and dry conditions. Kebede Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php