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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2000Z May 24, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Valid 00Z Wed May 25 2022 - 00Z Fri May 27 2022 ...Heavy rain and thunderstorms with the risk for flooding will move from the central to eastern U.S.... ...Heat will expand over the West with some fire weather risk for portions of the Southwest... ...Cooler weather remain over the Mid-Atlantic after record-breaking heat as central portions of the country also see below normal temperatures... A low pressure system over the Southern Plains will move northward through the Mississippi Valley during the short-term forecast period. A large warm-sector will expand over the Mississippi Valley and locations east as a warm front lifts north, with a slow moving cold front traling the system helping to promote widespread showers and thunderstorms. The greatest risk for flash flooding will be on Wednesday with a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall in effect for northern portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South. Thunderstorms along the cold front are forecast to continuously build and move over areas that have recently seen heavy rainfall. A broader Sligh Risk is in effect from southeast Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley where rainfall totals between 2-3 inches, locally higher, are possible. A Slight Risk is also in effect for portions of the Southern Appalachians Thursday as storms along the front could again poduce up to 1-3 inches of rainfall. Outside of the highlighted areas at greater risk for flooding, widespread heavy rainfall is still exected from the Gulf Coast northward through the Ohio Valley. Some severe weather is also possible with broad Marginal Risks (level 1/5) from the Storm Prediction Center in effect from the Mississippi Valley Wednesday further east in the the Ohio Valley and Southeast Thursday. Some hail and gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorm, as well as a low tornado risk. Meanwhile, in the West, hot temperatures will expand across the region under the influence of an upper-level ridge. Record-breaking heat is possible in central California Wednesday where forecast high tempeartures in the low-100s are at or above previous daily records. Much above normal tempeartures are forecast for the Great Basin Thursday with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s. Highs 5-10 degrees above normal can be expected outside of these areas. Dry conditions are also expected, with the combination of very low humidity and gusty winds over portions of New Mexico and far west Texas leading to an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The pattern will change for the Northwest late in the period Thursday evening as showers expand over the area ahead of an approaching Pacific system. After record-breaking heat over the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic, a lingering low presure system off the North Carolina coast will keep tempeartures cooler and scattered showers possible. High temperatures in the low 60s Tuesday will moderate some by reaching the low 70s by Thursday, but will remain around 10 degrees below normal. The rest of the East Coast will be around normal with tempeartures in the 60s and 70s for New England and the 80s for the Southeast and Florida. Additionally, in the wake of the eastward moving cold front over the central/eastern U.S., cooler, below normal temperatures will spread eastward through the Plains Wednesday and the Mississippi Valley Thursday. With the exception of far south Texas, highs Wednesday will generally be in the low 60s to mid-70s for the Southern Plains and in the 50s from the Central Plains northward to the Upper Midwest, about 10-20 degrees below normal for this time of year. These cooler highs will move eastward into the Mississippi Valley Thursday with temperatures generally in the 60s and low 70s. Putnam Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php