Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020
Valid 00Z Wed Jul 01 2020 - 00Z Fri Jul 03 2020
...Unseasonably cool temperatures and rain and higher elevation snow will
continue over the Northwest...
...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible in the Northern
Plains today, flash flood and severe weather threat from the Middle
Mississippi Valley to the Southeast to persist into mid-week...
...Fire danger is forecast for parts of the Southwest and southern High
Plains, hot conditions in the South-Central region...
...Another round of Saharan dust to affect the western/central Gulf
Despite the calendar getting ready to flip over to July, temperatures
continue to feel more like late Spring in the Northwest thanks to a large
upper level trough over the region. Wednesday's high temperatures will not
be as cool as today's but still look to range between 10 and 20 degrees
below normal. Lingering showers stick around the region tomorrow but drier
conditions return the second half of the week.
Ahead of the trough, a cold front will trigger severe thunderstorms in the
Northern Plains this afternoon and into tonight as a front moves across. A
Slight Risk of severe weather is in place, while flash flooding is also a
threat with rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches forecast. Farther south, a
pair of frontal boundaries will be responsible for areas of strong
thunderstorms and flash flooding across portions of the Mississippi, Ohio,
and Tennessee Valleys this evening and Wednesday. Rainfall rates could
exceed 2 inches per hour within intense thunderstorms and given low flash
flood guidance values in parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley, a Moderate
Risk for excessive rainfall is in place this evening. The flash flood
threat sticks around in the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday while also
extending into portions of the Deep South. Meanwhile, showers and some
thunderstorms along with seasonally cool temperatures are expected to
linger across the Northeast through midweek with above normal temperatures
making a comeback by Thursday.
As the east-central U.S. contends with showers and storms, much drier
conditions are stationed across the Southwest along with gusty winds and
low humidity. As a result, a Critical Risk of fire weather remains in
place today from southern Arizona to Southern High Plains. By Wednesday,
as the southern periphery of the western trough lifts northward ,the
Central Great Basin become favored for the highest potential fire danger.
A Critical Risk has been issued for the region on Wednesday and the risk
for favorable fire weather conditions may last into Thursday. Elevated
fire conditions are possible as far south as the Lower Colorado River
Valley and as far east as the plains of Wyoming. Meanwhile, the heat is
the story in the South-Central U.S. this afternoon with heat advisories in
effect from eastern Kansas on South to the potions of the western and
central Gulf Coast. Heat advisories will drag into Wednesday in parts of
the Southern Plains. Unseasonably hot conditions are also expected across
the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes.
While the highest concentration of Saharan dust has dissipated, the next
round impacting the western and central Gulf Coast states today should
persist into late week. The primary impacts of the Saharan dust are hazy
skies during the day, locally reduced visibility, degraded air quality,
and the potential for vividly colorful sunrises and sunsets.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php