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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1804Z Feb 12, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 104 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Feb 13 2025 - 00Z Sat Feb 15 2025 ...Second quick hitting cyclone developing across Ohio River Valley with cornucopia of weather hazards across much of the Eastern third of the CONUS today through early Friday: Heavy Snow in the Great Lakes/Interior New England, Freezing Rain/Wintry Mix across the Upper Ohio Valley/Central & Northern Appalachians, Severe Weather & Heavy Rainfall with flash flooding across the Deep South... ...Strong Pacific storm to enter the Central West Coast bringing heavy rainfall and risk of flash flooding/debris flows near recent burn scars across Transverse Ranges of Southern California... ...Critical Fire Weather Danger across the Western Texas Panhandle... ...Another surge of sub-zero temperatures across the Northern into Central Plains overnight Thursday... ...Record High Temperatures possible in Deep South Texas today and in Florida today and tomorrow... As the initial quick moving storm that affected the Mid-Atlantic through this morning as ushered its way out to sea already; the core of the upper-level trough is going to swing through the eastern half of the CONUS today through Friday morning. Already, moderate to heavy snows have been falling across the Central Missouri Valley into the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Great Lakes. A swath of 4-8" will fall across E IA, S WI/N IL into the Lower Peninsula of MI today through tomorrow morning. A surface low is likely to develop and enhance higher moisture and unstable air back across the Lower Mississippi Valley and across MS/AL today. Severe Weather is likely to occur from S LA to W GA and the Storm Prediction Center has hoisted an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) across the southern half of MS and AL with potential for large hail, severe winds, tornadoes including possible strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) is denoted. Along with the strong storms, multiple rounds may occur with heavy rainfall, so there is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (2 of 4)and potential Flash Flooding across much of the similar areas, but also spreading further north near/along the surface front into TN and the Southern Appalachians by later today. The severe/flash flooding risk will remain for Thursday across Georgia into South Carolina and northern Florida but level of potential will be reduced in magnitude and areal coverage with a Marginal issued by both SPC and WPC for their respective hazard Outlooks. It should be noted that moderate to heavy rainfall across the Cumberland Plateau may intersect with recent snowfall, increasing the risk of stream/river flooding as rain and melt combine quickly as runoff. This strong frontal zone also helps to delineate well above and well below air temperatures from south to north. Temperatures may reach the mid to upper 90s in the lower Rio Grande Valley and mid to upper 80s along the immediate central Gulf Coast into Florida. These 10-20 degrees above normal may even push record maximum temperatures in Texas today and across Florida through the early weekend. Further west, stronger winds and drier conditions coming out of the Mexican Plateau will present a Fire Weather Risk today, and SPC has issued a Critical (level 2 of 3) Risk today for the West Texas Panhandle with Elevated risk noted into adjacent southern New Mexico. Well north of the front, Extreme Cold Warnings are up across portion of northern MT and western ND as a well below average cold air mass drops out of Canada with sub-zero temperatures expected overnight nearing -20 to -30F in ND. The 10-25 degree below average air will drop into the remainder of the northern Plains into the northern Central Plains as well, but will start to modify late Thursday into Friday. Records are not likely but the hazard of extreme cold remains for humans/animals alike. The third in the parade of storms for this week, has been strengthening off the central West Coast in the eastern Pacific for a day or so. A strong buckle in the jet streak is associated with a closed low aloft that will provide continued energy to strengthen the low as it nears the coast later today into Thursday. The core of heavy rainfall will come with a warm front parallel to the California coastline, while the core of the moisture plume will be directed across the Redwood Coast of NW CA; however it will not linger long along/ahead of the cold front that will quickly drop south along the CA coast through Thursday afternoon, likely rounding Cape Conception toward Thursday evening. Heavy rainfall enhanced by orographic ascent on the mountains (both coastal ranges and lower foothills of the Sierra Nevada) will result in totals of 2-3" with locally higher amounts possible, as such, WPC has a broad Slight Risk for these ranges from Cape Mendocino southward. Thursday evening into Friday, the plume will be directed at the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges where recent burn scars remain at risk for debris flows/mudslides given lack of rainfall since occurring; as such a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is up for the Transverse Ranges and surrounding urban locations. Please keep attuned to local weather service office alerts and discussions from NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard and NWS San Diego. Additionally, the strong plume of moisture will intersect the central and southern Sierra Nevada Ranges Thursday into Friday with multiple feet of snow possible in the highest elevations. Gallina Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php