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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2014Z Apr 08, 2021)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 414 PM EDT Thu Apr 08 2021 Valid 00Z Fri Apr 09 2021 - 00Z Sun Apr 11 2021 ...Heavy rain/flooding and severe thunderstorms are expected for the south-central to southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday... ...Snow is likely in the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains Friday, with another round in the Northwest by Friday night... ...Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather remain in place for the Southwest to Southern High Plains... A surface low pressure system is forecast to continue to move slowly to the northeast through the Upper Midwest over the next couple of days, with rain and some thunderstorms likely for the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region, and Ohio Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has delineated a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight for portions of the Ohio Valley for the threat of high winds. Showers and possibly thunderstorms are also forecast along a stationary boundary extending southeast through the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as well. However, the more impactful rain and thunderstorms are likely to be farther south across the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S., as two frontal systems meander in the area and Gulf of Mexico moisture increases Friday and Saturday. On Friday and Friday night, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather is outlined for the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley for tornado, wind, and hail threats. The severe weather threat will shift further into the Southeast ahead of a cold front that will push eastward during the day Saturday, where a Slight Risk of severe weather is highlighted. Heavy rainfall is also likely along a stationary front extending into the Lower Mississippi Valley and ahead of the cold front, with a Slight Risk of flooding during the day and overnight Friday. In the northwestern U.S., precipitation is forecast along with cooler than normal temperatures as a cold front continues to the southeast through the Central Rockies and eastward into the northern Plains. Some snow accumulations are possible Friday, particularly for portions of southwestern Montana and the Black Hills. Then, precipitation chances increase again late Friday into Saturday for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies as another cold front comes through, with over a half foot of snow possible for the northern Cascade Mountains. In the Southwest and High Plains, warm temperatures are forecast along with gusty winds and low relative humidity values, and this combination will lead to the potential for continued dangerous fire weather conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Elevated Risk of fire danger in and around New Mexico through tonight. On Friday, there is a Critical Risk outlined for southwestern Texas, with an Elevated Risk again outlined for portions of New Mexico and west Texas. There are also widespread Red Flag Warnings in effect for portions of the Four Corners states, the Central and Northern High Plains, and Oklahoma. In general, most of the contiguous U.S. should see above normal temperatures over the next few days, with the exceptions being the Northwest as well as northern/central portions of the Plains behind the cold front pushing east Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be particularly warm for portions of the eastern Great Lakes region and interior Northeast Friday and Saturday, with highs up to 20 degrees above normal. The Desert Southwest and southern Texas will experience temperatures in the 90s and nearing 100 degrees over the next few days. Tate/Putnam Graphics available at