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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0753Z Apr 17, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 17 2019 - 12Z Fri Apr 19 2019 ...Strong storm to impact the central to southern U.S. with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected through Thursday morning... Several locations will see a threat for severe thunderstorms today as a two-part upper level storm system moves into the Great Plains. A northern portion will track through the Northern Plains this afternoon and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Thursday morning. A surface low and its corresponding cold/warm fronts will track ahead of this feature into Iowa and Wisconsin through tonight with increasing low level moisture transporting northward through the Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will also be rather warm by mid-April standards for Iowa into Illinois and the rest of the Midwest (south of the warm front) with highs well into the 70s today. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for severe storms surrounding the tri-state region of Iowa/Wisconsin/Illinois with concerns over tornadoes and hail. Farther to the south, the southern portion of the upper level storm system will move across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle through the day with thunderstorms expected to erupt near the cold front stretching southwestward from the surface low in Iowa to the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. It is here, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Kansas where an Enhanced Risk is in place by SPC. In fact, the Enhanced Risk extends southward through Oklahoma into northern and central Texas for severe thunderstorms forecast to develop late this evening and overnight. These storms will also pose a flash flood threat through Thursday morning from eastern Texas into the ArkLaTex toward the Memphis metropolitan area. Over the past week, some of these same locations across the South have seem well above average rainfall and may at greater risk of flash flooding from additional heavy rain. Thursday will be much quieter but significantly colder behind the storm system from the north-central U.S. border with Canada to the Rio Grande with forecast high temperatures only in the 50s to 60s for many. The severe weather and flash flood threat will shift east ahead of the cold front from the Illinois/Indiana border to the central Gulf Coast, with a greater severe threat (Enhanced Risk by SPC) in place from eastern Louisiana to western Alabama. Late spring-like temperatures will also shift east for Thursday with highs in the 70s to low 80s as far north as northern Ohio and western New York. The remainder of the nation will be fairly quiet through Friday morning as the central U.S. storm system dominates the weather pattern for the short range period. Otto Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php