Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019
Valid 00Z Tue Nov 12 2019 - 00Z Thu Nov 14 2019
... Widespread record cold possible Tuesday and Wednesday from the
Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Southeast
...Early season heavy snows likely from Western to Northern New York State
into Northern New England...
...Active Lake Effect snows will lead to locally heavy snows downwind of
the Great Lakes...
...Warm and dry conditions over the West with elevated fire weather threat
for portions of Southern California and the Southwest...
The arctic airmass that has settled across much of the northern and
central U.S. will continue to push south and eastward, spreading the much
below average temperatures into the Southeast and East on Tuesday and
continuing into Wednesday. Much of the central and eastern U.S. will be
enveloped in a region of much below average temperatures over the next two
days, along with potential for widespread record cold morning low
temperatures and record low afternoon high temperatures.
In contrast to the central and eastern U.S. record cold, much above
average temperatures expected across the West into the Great Basin and
Rockies. The warm temperatures, low relative humidities and dry
conditions will result in an increased fire weather threat for portions of
Southern California into the Southwest over the next two days.
An area of low pressure developing along the arctic front over the Ohio
Valley will push northeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England
tonight into Tuesday. Heavy snows likely on the northern and northwest
side of this low from western to northern New York State into Northern New
England. A large region of winter storm warnings are in effect across
these areas with snowfall accumulations of 6-12" likely to produce
hazardous travel conditions.
The arctic air spilling southeastward across the Great Lakes in the wake
of this low will ignite active lake effect snow showers, with locally
heavy snows likely in the favored regions downwind of all the Great Lakes.
While the heaviest snows are expected from the Great Lakes into northern
NY state and northern New England, rains will likely to change to snow as
the arctic front passing across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and into
the Central to Southern Appalachians, with light snow accumulations
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php