Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
104 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
Valid 00Z Thu Feb 13 2025 - 00Z Sat Feb 15 2025
...Second quick hitting cyclone developing across Ohio River Valley with
cornucopia of weather hazards across much of the Eastern third of the
CONUS today through early Friday: Heavy Snow in the Great Lakes/Interior
New England, Freezing Rain/Wintry Mix across the Upper Ohio Valley/Central
& Northern Appalachians, Severe Weather & Heavy Rainfall with flash
flooding across the Deep South...
...Strong Pacific storm to enter the Central West Coast bringing heavy
rainfall and risk of flash flooding/debris flows near recent burn scars
across Transverse Ranges of Southern California...
...Critical Fire Weather Danger across the Western Texas Panhandle...
...Another surge of sub-zero temperatures across the Northern into Central
Plains overnight Thursday...
...Record High Temperatures possible in Deep South Texas today and in
Florida today and tomorrow...
As the initial quick moving storm that affected the Mid-Atlantic through
this morning as ushered its way out to sea already; the core of the
upper-level trough is going to swing through the eastern half of the CONUS
today through Friday morning. Already, moderate to heavy snows have been
falling across the Central Missouri Valley into the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Central Great Lakes. A swath of 4-8" will fall across E
IA, S WI/N IL into the Lower Peninsula of MI today through tomorrow
morning. A surface low is likely to develop and enhance higher moisture
and unstable air back across the Lower Mississippi Valley and across MS/AL
today. Severe Weather is likely to occur from S LA to W GA and the Storm
Prediction Center has hoisted an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) across the
southern half of MS and AL with potential for large hail, severe winds,
tornadoes including possible strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) is denoted.
Along with the strong storms, multiple rounds may occur with heavy
rainfall, so there is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (2 of 4)and
potential Flash Flooding across much of the similar areas, but also
spreading further north near/along the surface front into TN and the
Southern Appalachians by later today. The severe/flash flooding risk
will remain for Thursday across Georgia into South Carolina and northern
Florida but level of potential will be reduced in magnitude and areal
coverage with a Marginal issued by both SPC and WPC for their respective
hazard Outlooks. It should be noted that moderate to heavy rainfall
across the Cumberland Plateau may intersect with recent snowfall,
increasing the risk of stream/river flooding as rain and melt combine
quickly as runoff.
This strong frontal zone also helps to delineate well above and well below
air temperatures from south to north. Temperatures may reach the mid to
upper 90s in the lower Rio Grande Valley and mid to upper 80s along the
immediate central Gulf Coast into Florida. These 10-20 degrees above
normal may even push record maximum temperatures in Texas today and across
Florida through the early weekend. Further west, stronger winds and
drier conditions coming out of the Mexican Plateau will present a Fire
Weather Risk today, and SPC has issued a Critical (level 2 of 3) Risk
today for the West Texas Panhandle with Elevated risk noted into adjacent
southern New Mexico.
Well north of the front, Extreme Cold Warnings are up across portion of
northern MT and western ND as a well below average cold air mass drops out
of Canada with sub-zero temperatures expected overnight nearing -20 to
-30F in ND. The 10-25 degree below average air will drop into the
remainder of the northern Plains into the northern Central Plains as well,
but will start to modify late Thursday into Friday. Records are not
likely but the hazard of extreme cold remains for humans/animals alike.
The third in the parade of storms for this week, has been strengthening
off the central West Coast in the eastern Pacific for a day or so. A
strong buckle in the jet streak is associated with a closed low aloft that
will provide continued energy to strengthen the low as it nears the coast
later today into Thursday. The core of heavy rainfall will come with a
warm front parallel to the California coastline, while the core of the
moisture plume will be directed across the Redwood Coast of NW CA; however
it will not linger long along/ahead of the cold front that will quickly
drop south along the CA coast through Thursday afternoon, likely rounding
Cape Conception toward Thursday evening. Heavy rainfall enhanced by
orographic ascent on the mountains (both coastal ranges and lower
foothills of the Sierra Nevada) will result in totals of 2-3" with locally
higher amounts possible, as such, WPC has a broad Slight Risk for these
ranges from Cape Mendocino southward. Thursday evening into Friday, the
plume will be directed at the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges where
recent burn scars remain at risk for debris flows/mudslides given lack of
rainfall since occurring; as such a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is
up for the Transverse Ranges and surrounding urban locations. Please keep
attuned to local weather service office alerts and discussions from NWS
Los Angeles/Oxnard and NWS San Diego. Additionally, the strong plume of
moisture will intersect the central and southern Sierra Nevada Ranges
Thursday into Friday with multiple feet of snow possible in the highest
elevations.
Gallina
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php