Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Thu Apr 08 2021
Valid 00Z Fri Apr 09 2021 - 00Z Sun Apr 11 2021
...Heavy rain/flooding and severe thunderstorms are expected for the
south-central to southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday...
...Snow is likely in the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains Friday,
with another round in the Northwest by Friday night...
...Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather remain in place for the
Southwest to Southern High Plains...
A surface low pressure system is forecast to continue to move slowly to
the northeast through the Upper Midwest over the next couple of days, with
rain and some thunderstorms likely for the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great
Lakes region, and Ohio Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has delineated
a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight for portions of the
Ohio Valley for the threat of high winds. Showers and possibly
thunderstorms are also forecast along a stationary boundary extending
southeast through the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as well. However, the
more impactful rain and thunderstorms are likely to be farther south
across the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S., as two frontal systems
meander in the area and Gulf of Mexico moisture increases Friday and
Saturday. On Friday and Friday night, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather
is outlined for the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley for
tornado, wind, and hail threats. The severe weather threat will shift
further into the Southeast ahead of a cold front that will push eastward
during the day Saturday, where a Slight Risk of severe weather is
highlighted. Heavy rainfall is also likely along a stationary front
extending into the Lower Mississippi Valley and ahead of the cold front,
with a Slight Risk of flooding during the day and overnight Friday.
In the northwestern U.S., precipitation is forecast along with cooler than
normal temperatures as a cold front continues to the southeast through the
Central Rockies and eastward into the northern Plains. Some snow
accumulations are possible Friday, particularly for portions of
southwestern Montana and the Black Hills. Then, precipitation chances
increase again late Friday into Saturday for the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies as another cold front comes through, with over a half
foot of snow possible for the northern Cascade Mountains.
In the Southwest and High Plains, warm temperatures are forecast along
with gusty winds and low relative humidity values, and this combination
will lead to the potential for continued dangerous fire weather
conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Elevated Risk of
fire danger in and around New Mexico through tonight. On Friday, there is
a Critical Risk outlined for southwestern Texas, with an Elevated Risk
again outlined for portions of New Mexico and west Texas. There are also
widespread Red Flag Warnings in effect for portions of the Four Corners
states, the Central and Northern High Plains, and Oklahoma.
In general, most of the contiguous U.S. should see above normal
temperatures over the next few days, with the exceptions being the
Northwest as well as northern/central portions of the Plains behind the
cold front pushing east Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be
particularly warm for portions of the eastern Great Lakes region and
interior Northeast Friday and Saturday, with highs up to 20 degrees above
normal. The Desert Southwest and southern Texas will experience
temperatures in the 90s and nearing 100 degrees over the next few days.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php