Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 23 2021 - 12Z Mon Oct 25 2021
...Series of low pressure systems to produce heavy rainfall and mountain
snow to northern California...
...Potent system to produce heavy rain and thunderstorms across
Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
...Warm pattern continues for the South while East Coast warms up and West
...Elevated fire weather risk issued for portions of the Southern Plains...
Much needed precipitation is on its way to northern California as a series
of low pressure systems bring an influx of Pacific moisture to the region
over the next few days. Heavy rain is likely across the lower elevations
of northern California, while many of the western mountain ranges will
receive heavy snowfall through Monday. This atmospheric river event will
generate multiple inches of rainfall for the aforementioned lowlands and
several inches of snow for the Northern Rockies, Sierra and Cascades. The
Sierra could see snowfall totals in excess of 2 feet at its highest peaks.
Flooding and secondary hazards associated with flooding are a concern over
parts of Northern California for the next few days as precipitation ramps
up. Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall leading to flash flooding are in
effect for these areas as a result. This AR event should last until
Tuesday when this potent Pacific system will have moved into the Great
A quasi-stationary boundary draped across the Plains and Midwest will be
the focus for heavy precipitation heading into the work week. An area of
low pressure will develop along this boundary tomorrow as an upper-trough
interacts with the front. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will then spread
across the Midwest and into the Northeast. Thunderstorm activity will also
kick off out ahead of this system's cold front over the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorms may be severe as indicated by the
Storm Prediction Center's Slight Risk areas for the Midwest and
Mississippi Valley over the next few days.
The Deep South will continue to experience above average warm high
temperatures over the next few days as troughing in the West continues to
pull warm air into the southern states. Temperatures will fall
precipitously across the West Coast on the backside of the powerful
Pacific system. Warm air will eventually creep up the East Coast by Monday
due to the approaching low pressure system and its ascendant warm front.
The Rocky foothills will also experience a warm up on Monday thanks to the
approaching Pacific system. Elevated fire weather risks continue across
portions of the Southern Plains over the next couple of days due to warm
and dry conditions.
Graphics are available at