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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2024Z Jul 11, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 424 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Valid 00Z Fri Jul 12 2019 - 00Z Sun Jul 14 2019 ...Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, Flood and Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for parts of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Barry approaches... ...The risk of very heavy rainfall and significant flash flooding will continue to increase along the central Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley by the end of the week and into the weekend... ...Severe thunderstorms, locally heavy rain and some flash flooding will be possible tonight across the central and northern Mid-Atlantic region... Tropical Storm Barry is currently centered approximately 70 miles from the southeastern coast of the Greater New Orleans region. The tropical system is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it traverses the warm Gulf of Mexico waters and approaches the central Louisiana coast by Friday night. The slow-moving nature of this tropical system will mean that heavy rainfall will last longer, which will lead to an increased flood threat. Rainfall amounts of up to 15 inches along the Greater New Orleans coast are likely. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash flooding for the southeastern tip of the Louisiana coast for tonight. There is a Moderate Risk embedded within a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding possible extending from the central Louisiana coast to the Florida Panhandle on Friday. A High Risk embedded within a Moderate and Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coast on Saturday as Barry makes landfall in southern Louisiana that morning. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for an area along the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coast. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected along the eastern seaboard this evening as a cold front sweeps through. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for much of the Appalachians and Northeast, while a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for parts of the Central Appalachians and central Mid-Atlantic. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the Central Appalachians up into the Lower Great Lakes as well as a separate area over the Mid-Atlantic. Totals of up to an inch of rain are possible for parts of central West Virginia and New England. A low pressure system will enter from the Pacific Northwest this evening bringing the possibility for locally heavy showers across the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest by Saturday. Elsewhere, increasingly hot temperatures are expected across the western United States going through the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the Four Corners region. For today and Friday, high temperatures in the 90s will be commonplace, with temperatures locally exceeding 110 degrees across the Desert Southwest. Over the weekend, there will also be just a hint of some monsoonal moisture lifting north from the Gulf of California and adjacent areas of mainland Mexico, and this will cause scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the Four Corners region. Kebede Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php