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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1959Z Oct 16, 2018)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018 Valid 00Z Wed Oct 17 2018 - 00Z Fri Oct 19 2018 ...Heavy rain possible over Texas through tonight as moisture from Tropical Storm Tara being drawn northward... ...Wintry precipitation over the higher elevations of Arizona and New Mexico will spread northward into the central Rockies... An upper-level vortex is forecast to move very slowly northward across the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days. Persistent southwesterly flow ahead of this vortex will draw tropical moisture northward from Tropical Storm Tara, currently located just offshore from Manzanillo, Mexico. Areas of moderate to heavy rain already falling across Texas into Louisiana are expected to continue through tonight, leading to the possibility of flash flooding across central Texas. This stream of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific will appear to continue into Thursday with the highest chance of heavy rain shifting very slowly from central Texas into northeastern Texas. Meanwhile, some heavy rain could develop along the Texas coast on Thursday near an inverted trough when a stationary front offshore returns as a warm front. Meanwhile, cold air associated with the core of the upper-level vortex is currently supporting wintry precipitation across the higher elevations of Arizona and New Mexico. The precipitation will slowly progress northward into the central Rockies through Thursday, with the possibility of heavy snow over the higher elevations in southwest Colorado on Wednesday. Farther north, a colder surge of Canadian air will support snow showers to spread from the upper Great Lakes into Lower Michigan tonight. By Wednesday night, snow showers are expected to develop downwind of the lower Great Lakes, spreading into interior New England overnight behind a cold front. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic should push steadily southward into Florida by Thursday near and ahead of another cold front. Generally fine conditions will prevail across the remainder of the western to northern U.S. with a warming trend expected across the northern Plains. Kong Graphics available at