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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2014Z Dec 07, 2018)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 PM EST Fri Dec 07 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Dec 08 2018 - 00Z Mon Dec 10 2018 ...Winter storm to bring ice and snow from the southern Plains to the Appalachians, and heavy rain from eastern Texas to Georgia... An upper level system is forecast to move east across the southwestern U.S. Friday night, producing a wintry mix of snow and ice from New Mexico into northwest Texas and Oklahoma later this evening. Greatest snowfall accumulations through early Saturday are expected to center across the West Texas South Plains, where local totals of 3-4 inches are forecast. Mixed precipitation will also be possible further east into northern Arkansas, including the Ozark region, where some higher accumulations are also possible. Then as the upper system continues to move east and an organizing surface low begins to track along the coast, snow will begin to develop across the southern and central Appalachians on Saturday. As southerly winds ahead of the low increase, drawing ample moisture up from the Gulf, cold high pressure is forecast to remain in place over the Mid-Atlantic - setting the stage for a significant winter storm with considerable snow accumulations for the southern and central Appalachians through Sunday. Snowfall amounts in these areas could exceed a foot - resulting in hazardous travel conditions, downed trees and power outages. A wintry mix is expected further east for the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, where wet snow and freezing rain may also disrupt travel and contribute to power outages. Meanwhile, this system is expected to produce heavy rain for areas further to the south, particularly from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi valley. These rains may result in rapid stream rises and flooding as indicated by the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook, which shows Slight to Moderate Risk for these areas into early Saturday. Saturday into early Sunday, this heavy rain threat is expected to shift further east along the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Pereira Graphics available at