Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 00Z Sun May 10 2026 - 00Z Tue May 12 2026

...Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms from central Gulf Coast to the
Florida Panhandle into this evening...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
Southern Plains to the Arklatex region on Sunday...

...Triple-digit heat develops across the Desert Southwest and interior
California Sunday and Monday...

A high pressure system from Canada will bring another dose of cool and dry
air into much of the eastern half of the country through the next couple
of days.  As the cold front pushes farther south, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be triggered into tonight across the northern High
Plains to the central Plains.  Meanwhile, a low pressure system will
gradually intensify and pass north of the Great Lakes through tonight.  A
squall line ahead of the cold front could be sweeping across the lower
Great Lakes region through this evening.  A separate area of rain and
embedded thunderstorms will also move across portions of the Northeast. 
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are also expected across New
England on Sunday as the cold front sweeps across the region.  By Monday,
showers and thunderstorms will then stretch from the east-central U.S. to
the Mid-Atlantic as the front begins to slide off the East Coast.  Chilly
air associated with the Canadian high pressure system is forecast to bring
frost and freeze for the northern Plains, portions of the upper Midwest
and the Great Lakes.

Meanwhile, more active strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across
the South before the cold front pushes all
the way down to the Gulf Coast by Monday.  The most active area is along
the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle where ongoing heavy rain
and strong thunderstorms are expected to continue into this evening.  By
Sunday, the aforementioned cold front will forcefully push across the
Southern Plains where a round of strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected to develop and then spread across the Arklatex region Sunday
night into early on Monday.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected for the
Southeast for the rest of Monday as the front will take extra time to move
pass the region.

A persistent ridge of high pressure will be anchored over the western U.S.
for the next few days bringing dry with much above normal temperatures. 
In fact, heat will progressively build under this ridge across the
Southwest where triple-digit heat could break some daily records across
the Desert Southwest and interior California on Sunday and especially on
Monday.  Across the Sunshine state, heat and humidity across portions of
South Florida and the Keys will bring elevated heat risk through the next
couple of days.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php