Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on X
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0640Z May 15, 2025)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 240 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 12Z Thu May 15 2025 - 12Z Sat May 17 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms possible for the Middle and Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today and Friday... ...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible for portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday... ...Dangerous heat forecast for portions of Texas... A strong low pressure system will track into the Upper Midwest today, supporting active weather for the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Great Lakes region today and Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast ahead of a strong cold front that will push east across these regions, and conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorm development. Today, the highest severe thunderstorm threat will extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, then the highest threat will shift to the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys on Friday. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected, and hazards may include large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. Storm motion is forecast to be relatively progressive today, which will help limit any flash flood threat from heavy rain, but slower storms on Friday could result in scattered instances of flash flooding for portions of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Isolated instances of flash flooding will also be possible in portions of the Northern Plains today where persistent showers on the backside of the strong low will result in 1-3 inches of rainfall. Additional flash flooding concerns will exist today in portions of the Mid-Atlantic where scattered showers and storms will linger as a weak frontal boundary lifts north across the region. Recent heavy rains have saturated soils and resulted in impactful flash flooding in portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and any additional rainfall today could be problematic. By Saturday, the strong low pressure system will pick up some eastward momentum, pushing a cold front into the Eastern U.S. while a warm front lifts into the Northeast. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist across much of the East and extend back into the Southern Plains where the tail of the cold front will briefly become stationary before lifting back north as a warm front. Precipitation chances will also increase across the Northwest on Saturday as an energetic Pacific frontal system pushes onshore. Widespread showers are forecast with high elevation mixed precipitation and snow possible in the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Temperatures are forecast to cool across the North-Central U.S. as colder air moves into the region behind the strong low pressure system. High temperatures will likely be 10-20 degrees below normal, only reaching the 50s with some areas only reaching the upper 40s. Meanwhile, the South-Central U.S. will be battling dangerous heat as high temperatures soar into the 90s and 100s across Texas. Above average temperatures are also forecast across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast where highs may reach the 80s and lower 90s today and Friday. Temperatures should moderate in the Midwest and East on Saturday while below average temperatures develop in the West as a frontal system moves onshore. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php