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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z May 21, 2024)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 12Z Tue May 21 2024 - 12Z Thu May 23 2024 ...An increasing threat of severe weather and excessive rainfall as well as high winds expected to overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest today through tonight and into Wednesday morning... ...Severe weather and heavy rain threat will emerge across the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...Cool conditions with periods of shower and high elevation snow chances from the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest... ...Well above average temperatures across the central Plains will be replaced by cooler conditions but summer-like weather expected to continue across the southern Plains to the Northeast... A persistent weather pattern will continue to send energetic and fast-moving weather systems onshore from the Pacific Ocean into the Northwest through the short-range forecast period. These systems will tend to intensify as they reach into the mid-section of the country. One such system is developing and tracking toward the northeast across the central Plains this morning. The threat of severe weather and heavy rain will be expanding toward the upper Midwest by tonight along with increasingly windy conditions when the low pressure system is forecast to become quite deep and intense. Thunderstorms that erupt ahead of a potent cold front may contain damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes, from the central Plains to the Great Lakes, and especially over Iowa, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms for later today. Heavy rain may also lead to scattered instances of flash flooding through tonight across the upper Midwest. The center of the system will begin to move into southern Canada by Wednesday morning with the heavy rain threat quickly decreasing across the Great Lakes but the winds will take extra time to subside there. As the low pressure system begins to move away into southern Canada on Wednesday, the trailing cold front will become nearly stationary across the southern Plains where the next phase of severe weather and excessive rainfall is forecast to emerge. It appears that these threats will expand toward the mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday night where thunderstorms will tend to become slow-moving. Meanwhile, cool and unsettled weather underneath a broad upper trough is anticipated to remain locked-in over the Northwest and Rockies through at least midweek. Snow is possible into the higher elevations of Wyoming and Colorado today. Another upper trough will then bring the next round of mountain snows and low-elevation rain into the Northwest on Wednesday before overspreading the northern Rockies by early on Thursday where snow levels could drop to around 7000 feet. High temperatures in these regions are also expected to remain on the cooler side and 10 to 25 degrees below average. For areas south and east of the main storm system impacting the central U.S. this week, highs are expected to soar above average and into potentially record-breaking territory for certain spots. Widespread highs into the 80s and low 90s are forecast from the Midwest and Deep South to the Northeast through Wednesday, with mid-to-upper 90s and triple digits in parts of South Texas and the southern High Plains. This heat could be particularly dangerous for people dealing with a loss of power in parts of Texas. Warm overnight temperatures will offer little relief and high humidity could also lead to heat index readings over 110 degrees. Kong/Snell Graphics available at