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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0756Z Jul 14, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 16 2019 ...Tropical Storm Barry remains a significant flooding threat for the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South... ...Severe weather is possible across the north-central U.S. for the beginning of the week... Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression today as it moves slowly northward over Louisiana and Arkansas. Though winds will decrease, very heavy rainfall will continue--rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are forecast for south-central Louisiana, and rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches are expected for the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-South. Thus, a High Risk of flash flooding is in place today across parts of Louisiana, with a Moderate Risk for much of Louisiana and Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas. As Barry moves northward on Sunday, a Moderate Risk of flash flooding is outlooked for the Mid-South, encompassing portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and the bootheel of Missouri. River flooding is also expected, and a few brief tornadoes are possible as well. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are expected across the north-central tier of the U.S. as a frontal system moves across. The Storm Prediction Center has delineated a Slight Risk of severe weather for the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest today, and Slight Risks are in place for the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Midwest on Monday as well. Storms could also cause locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash floods. Farther south, scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible for the Great Basin and Southwest into the Rockies and High Plains on Sunday and Monday. Cool high temperatures are likely in the Lower Mississippi Valley today with Barry, and record low maximum temperatures could be set there. Behind a cold front moving across the Northwest, high temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average. Elsewhere, temperatures will generally be at or above average, and Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of Arizona and California. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php