Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 30 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains on Saturday and over the
Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast by Sunday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over the
Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. On Saturday, some thunderstorms
will be strong to severe over parts of the Northeast and northern
Mid-Atlantic. South of the front, upper-level impulses, daytime heating,
and ample amounts of moisture will develop showers and thunderstorms over
the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Gulf Coast.

On Sunday, the front moves farther out over the Western Atlantic as a
stationary front lingers across the Mid-Atlantic. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley and the
Mid-Atlantic. Likewise, some thunderstorms will be strong or severe over
the Mid-Atlantic. Similarly, upper-level impulses, daytime heating, and
ample amounts of moisture will develop showers and thunderstorms over the
southern mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, a second front over the Northern Plains to the Central Rockies
and Great Basin on Saturday will move eastward to the Great Lakes, Middle
Mississippi Valley, and into the Southern Plains by Monday. The boundary
will create showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest. On Saturday,
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Northern/Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Northern/Central Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there will be an increased
threat of hail two inches or greater over Minnesota.

In addition, upper-level impulses, daytime heating, and moisture will
create showers and thunderstorms on Saturday over the High Plains,
Central/Southern Plains, and Middle Mississippi Valley.

On Sunday, as the front continues to move eastward, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal threat of tornadoes and hail. 

Moreover, upper-level impulses, daytime heating, and moisture will create
showers and thunderstorms over the High Plains, Central/Southern Plains,
and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Elsewhere, on Saturday, weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will
produce scattered showers over parts of the Pacific Northwest.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php