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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Oct 04, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 04 2022 - 12Z Thu Oct 06 2022 ...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions persist from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England... ...Showers and thunderstorms over the West shift into the Southern Rockies and High Plains... ...Shower and thunderstorm chances move eastward from the Plains into the Midwest before a strong cold front begins pushing southward late Wednesday... A stubborn upper-level low will remain entrenched over the Mid-Atlantic for at least another day, continuing the rainy, breezy, and cool conditions that have plagued the region since the weekend. The rainfall will also continue further to the northeast over southern New England as onshore flow ahead of a low pressure system just off the coast shifts further northward. Another 1-2 inches of rain are possible along and east of the I-95 corridor through the Mid-Atlantic and along the coast in southern New England. Fortunately, rainfall rates have been relatively low keeping the threat for any flash and urban flooding down. Breezy conditions will also continue, particularly along the coast, and coastal flooding will remain a concern. The system is forecast to begin moving eastward on Wednesday which should hopefully begin to clear out the rain for the Mid-Atlantic while lingering a bit longer for southern New England. Forecast high temperatures will remain well below normal by up to 20-25 degrees in some locations Tuesday. Highs along the I-95 urban corridor and eastward in the Mid-Atlantic will be in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s and low 60s outside of the persistent rain in the Appalachians and Interior Northeast. Temperatures will also recover a bit on Wednesday for the Mid-Atlantic as the rain moves out but still remain below normal, with low to mid-60s expected. An upper-level short-wave trough over the Great Basin is forecast to move southeastward over the Central/Southern Rockies and eastern portions of the Southwest, with a potential cutoff low developing, as a surface frontal boundary follows, shifting the focus of shower and thunderstorm chances southeastward into the Southern Rockies and High Plains. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall rates as surface moisture remains anomalously high across the region, and isolated instances of flash flooding are possible given wet antecedent conditions. The frontal system over the Southern Rockies/High Plains will also push south and eastward from the Northern/Central Plains and into the Midwest Tuesday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs Tuesday behind the front will be a bit cooler than they have been the past few days, particularly for portions of the Central Plains, with upper 60s to low 70s expected. However, the bigger change will begin on Wednesday across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a strong cold front from Canada begins to push southward into the U.S. Temperatures will begin to plunge late Wednesday behind the front to near or below freezing Thursday morning after topping off in the upper 60s and low 70s. Showers are also likely across the Upper Great Lakes later Wednesday and into Thursday morning as this front pushes southeastward. Elsewhere, temperatures will be above average from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains, with low to mid-70s for the Lower Great Lakes, upper 70s to low 80s for the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and upper 80s to 90 degrees for the Southern Plains. Highs will also be above average in the West, with upper 70s and low 80s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, lower 90s for the central California Valleys, low to mid-70s along the California coast, and mid-90s to near 100 for the Desert Southwest. Putnam Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php