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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1930Z Sep 30, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Valid 00Z Sun Oct 01 2023 - 00Z Tue Oct 03 2023 ...Widespread precipitation, windy conditions, and below-normal temperatures expected across much of the western U.S.... ...Locally heavy rain with flooding possible over portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies... ...Above-normal to near-record temperatures forecast to build farther north over the north-central U.S.... A deep upper level trough and its associated frontal system will advance across the western U.S., bringing widespread precipitation, windy conditions, and below-normal temperatures to the region. Widespread precipitation will continue to develop across portions of California, the Great Basin, and the northern to central Rockies through the remainder of the weekend into Monday. Some mixed precipitation and snow is expected across some of the higher elevations, including portions of the Sierra and the Glacier National Park area, where Winter Weather Advisories are currently in affect. Temperatures across much of the western U.S. are forecast to remain seasonal to below-average through the early part of next week, with some record cool temperatures expected for parts of southern California and the Great Basin on Sunday. Farther east, windy but mostly dry conditions are expected to continue across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, which are likely to once again elevate fire weather concerns across that region on Sunday. Much wetter conditions are expected farther east over the southern High Plains and along the eastern slopes of the southern Rockies, where moist southerly winds are expected to support periods of showers and thunderstorms each day. These storms will have the potential to produce locally heavy amounts, resulting in isolated excessive runoff and flooding. The areas impacted are likely to include Far West Texas, and portions of central and northeast New Mexico, where Flood Watches are currently in effect. An upper level ridge will continue to support above-normal temperatures across much of the central U.S. through the early part of next week. Anomalously warm temperatures, climbing more than 20 degrees above normal in some locations, are expected to build farther north from the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday, with near record highs forecast for areas extending from eastern Nebraska and southeast South Dakota to Wisconsin. High pressure and dry conditions, with seasonal to above-average temperatures, are expected across much of the eastern U.S. through the early part of next week. Florida will likely be an exception, where a slow-moving frontal boundary is expected to support unsettled weather, with areas of heavy rain possible. Pereira Graphics available at