Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 15 2025 - 12Z Fri Jan 17 2025

...Critical fire weather conditions will continue across coastal southern
California today but improvement expected toward end of week...

...Temperatures will start off cold but will warm from west to east from
Great Plains to Appalachians through Friday...

...Localized heavy lake effect snow showers will begin to wane downwind of
the Great Lakes tonight but at least light snow to continue into Friday...

Southern California will maintain locally extreme fire danger across
portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties through at least Wednesday
afternoon with northeasterly wind gusts of 30-50 mph (isolated 60 mph
gusts), across mountainous regions. Critical fire weather conditions will
extend throughout much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges today as
well. While wind gusts may not be as strong compared to Ventura and Los
Angeles counties, the potential for rapid fire growth and localized downed
trees and power outages will still remain. Conditions look to improve
during the day on Thursday as the surface pressure gradient weakens and
winds begin to shift toward weakly onshore.

A very cold airmass in place across the Midwest to East Coast early
Wednesday morning will begin to moderate through the end of the week as
low level winds begin to shift toward the west and southwest. However,
temperatures will start off 10 to 20 degrees below average today across
the Ohio Valley. Lake effect snow showers will continue to the east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today, but coverage and intensity should begin
to diminish in advance of a warm front approaching from the west. While
temperatures will be warming across the Great Lakes and Northeast, another
round of light to moderate snow will be advancing east from the upper
Great Lakes on Thursday, reaching the central Appalachians and Northeast
later in the day on Thursday.  Snowfall accumulations with this system are
expected to remain low (a couple of inches at most) but should be bit
higher for the central Appalachians where localized 6 to 12 inch amounts
are forecast.

In the wake of the eastward tracking warm front over the Great Plains,
high temperatures will warm into the 30s and 40s today and Thursday over
the northern Plains (up to 20 degrees above average for mid-January).
However, this warmth will be of a short duration as the beginning of a
surge of bitter cold air will be entering the northern Plains Friday
morning, with much colder weather in the forecast for the weekend.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php