Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 

 

AMS Madison Summit 2026, Madison, WI

• Brooks et al., 2026: Long-Term Tornado Warning Metrics Revisited
• Correia and Trojniak, 2026: Tyranny of the Tiny: Comparing CAMs to observations for tiny and mighty storms
• Correia et al., 2026: From Theory to Practice: On Informing a Probabilistic Forecasting Philosophy
• Tinney et al., 2026: Ensembles, AI, and CAMs, Oh My! Insights from the 2026 Precipitation Extremes for Atmospheric Rivers Experiment
• Trojniak et al., 2026: Comparison of HREF and REFS Neighborhood Probabilities for QPF Exceedances
• Bartolini et al., 2026: Limitations of Existing NWP Precipitation-Type Algorithms in Sleet and Freezing Rain Cases: Results from the 2025-2026 Winter Weather Experiment
• Nelson et al., 2026: Enhancing Operational Decision-Making Through a Unified Probabilistic Forecast Process
• Coleman et al., 2026: Ensemble Tools in NWS Operations: Results from the First NOAA WPC HMT Ensemble Clustering and Sensitivity Analysis Testbed Experiment
• Yussouf et al., 2026: Toward WoFSv2: Evaluating an MPAS-Based Storm-Scale Ensemble Prediction System in NOAA Testbeds
• Snook et al., 2026: Results and Findings of CAPS CAM Forecasts during the 2024 and 2025 HMT Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiments

AMS Annual Meeting 2026, Houston, TX

• Bartolini et al., 2026: Results from the 2024-2025 Winter Weather Experiment: Towards Improving Observation and Evaluation Capabilities for Freezing Rain Events
• Correia and Trojniak 2026: Tyranny of the Tiny: Extreme Rainfall from a Watershed Point of View
• Trojniak and Correia 2026: The Progression of Experimenting with an Extreme Precipitation Contour on the Excessive Rainfall Outlook in during the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment
• Baldin, Brooks, Correia 2026: Considering Misclassification Costs and Decision Making in Forecast Evaluation
• Berrington et al 2026: Evaluation of Experimental Ensemble Forecasts Informing Design of the RRFS for the 2024 and 2025 Hydrometeorology Testbed's Flash Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiments
• Mahoney et al 2026: Assessing Fitness-for-Purpose in Extreme Precipitation Datasets: Challenges, Approaches, and Emerging Best Practices
• Kus et al 2026: The Forecast Progression and Verification of Excessive Rainfall Outlooks With a Moderate Risk on Day 4
• Coleman et al 2026: Ensemble Clustering with a Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Superensemble: Evaluation during the 2025 WPC Hydrometeorology Testbed Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment
• Snook et al 2026: Results and Verification for CAPS ML Rainfall Forecast Products for the 2025 HMT FFaIR
• Dale et al 2026: NOAA Testbeds & Proving Grounds: Advancing probabilistic hazards forecasting for decision support
• Dufort et al 2026: Insights from Discussions of the Collaborative Efforts between the NWS and their Stakeholders

AMS Annual Meeting 2025, New Orleans, LA

• Trojniak et al., 2025: 2024 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment: Summary of HREF and REFS Membership Performance. Session 13.6
• Burg et al., 2025: The Weather Prediction Center’s new Atmospheric River Experiment: Results and Future Plans
• Bartolini et al., 2025: Results from the Weather Prediction Center's 2023-2024 Winter Weather Experiment
• Trojniak and Correia, 2025: A Climatology of the Hight Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) Heavy Rainfall Probabilities
• Correia and Trojniak, 2025: How Is Extreme Precipitation Manifesting during the Warm Season? Reflections on 4 Years of the Hydrometeorological Testbeds' Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment
• Ray et al, 2025: The NOAA Testbeds & Proving Grounds: Advancing probabilistic hazards forecasting for decision support
• Nelson, 2025: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Development and Training Branch: R2O Activities
• Coleman et al, 2025: Ensemble Clustering applied to a Time-lagged Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Superensemble: Evaluation during the 2024 Hydrometeorology Testbed Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment

Central Region Winter Weather Symposium, October 2024

• Bartolini et al., 2024: Results from the 2023-2024 WPC Winter Weather Experiment (WWE): Focus on RRFS Deterministic and Ensemble Performance Oral Presentation

31st Severe Local Storms Conference, Virginia Beach, VA, October 2024

• Correia et al., 2024: FFaIR 2024 Preliminary Findings: REFS Oral Presentation

NWA Annual Meeting 2024, Irving, Texas, September 2024

• Correia and Trojniak, 2024: The HydroMeteorology Testbed: Collaborative Community Science Showcase Presentation

AMS Annual Meeting 2024, Baltimore MD

• Correia et al., 2024: My favorite model has improved but has it improved for me? A perspective on forecast evaluation and verification. Session 13.6
• Bartolini et al., 2024: The Weather Prediction Center's Winter Weather Experiment: Past Successes, Ongoing Challenges, and Future Plans
• Trojniak et al., 2024: Using Average Recurrence Intervals to Identify Intensity Risk in the Day 1 Time-period
• Correia et al., 2024: Hatched: The struggle of communicating Intensity with the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook
• Trojniak et al., 2024: Results from the 2023 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment
• Nelson, 2024: Probabilistic Forecasting Products and Tool Development at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

NWA Annual Meeting 2023, Kansas City MO

• Eosco, Williamsberg, Correia, Brost, Scharfenberg, Jeglum, Wilson, Ripberger, 2023: Its an Art and Science! A Crash Course in Communicating Probabilities

AMS Annual Meeting 2023, Denver, CO

• Trojniak et al., 2023: Using Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) to Identify Heavy Rainfall Risk in the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment
• Trojniak et al., 2023: Key Findings from the 2022 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment
Griffin, Correia, Trojniak, Nelson, 2023: An Analysis of the Maximum Rainfall and Timing Product Forecast Activity during the Flash Flooding and Intense Rainfall Experiment 2022

AMS Annual Meeting 2022, Houston, TX

• Trojniak et al., 2023: A Brief Review of the Performance of FV3 CAMs during the 2021 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment

NWA Annual Meeting 2022,

• Trojniak et al., 2022: Experimenting with the WPC Hydromet Testbed: The Challenges and Opportunities of Virtual Sciencing

AMS Annual Meeting 2021,

• Correia 2021: Missing Convective System or Mesoscale Convective System? An evaluation of experimental convection allowing model precipitation guidance during FFaIR 2020
• Correia and Brooks, 2021: What is an optimal forecast? Diagramming performance between a ROC and a hard place
• Correia, Trojniak , 2022: An interactive, virtual testbed exercise in extreme rainfall forecasting and verification: Introducing the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) 2020 Maximum Rainfall and Timing Product (MRTP)
• Harnos et al, 2021: The 10th Annual Winter Weather Experiment