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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1231Z Nov 16, 2022)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
730 AM EST WED NOV 16 2022

...NEXT PUERTO RICO DISCUSSION WILL BE AVAILABLE ON DECEMBER 15...

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM NOV
16/12UTC: AMIDST THE DRY-TO-WET TRANSITION...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE CENTERING ON AN ENLONGATED HIGH
BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE
RIDGE IS ESTABLISHING A TRADE WIND CAP OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. AT 12 UTC ITS BASE WAS ESTABLISHING NEAR 900 HPA. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CLOUDINESS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VI...AND THE ISOLATED TRADE
WIND CONVECTION STREAMING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST SHOWS VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTEMDS FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
INTO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. YET...THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE DRIER AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER THAT IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ARE THE DOMINANT FEATURES.

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ROLL TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE FORECAST CYCLE
PROGRESSES...TO CENTER SOUTH OF BERMUDA DURING THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THE HIGH CENTERS IN THIS REGION...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO ESTABLISH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN THE SOLUTION OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE ISLANDS...AND THEN RETROGRADING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A TUTT LOW STARTIND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE DRY SPELL THIS WEEK INTO WETTER
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. UNDER UTHE
INFLUENCE OF A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT POTENTIALLY HIGHER POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. YET...CURRENT SOLUTIONS OF
THE STRUCTURE OF THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IS UNLIKELY.

IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT LIGHT KLATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION IN EASTERN...NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE WESTERN
VI ON A DAILY BASIS...ENHANCED BY FAST 15-25KT NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WIND CAP...EXPECT LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA.

GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)