TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
845 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2023

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 03/12UTC:
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS LOCATED AT ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF
ANEGADA OF THE BRITISH ISLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHWEST. THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IS
FOR 2 - 4 INCHES FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PR...AS WELL AS
CULEBRA..THE NORTHERN USVI...AND PORTIONS OF VIEQUES AND ST CROIX.
OTHER AREAS OF PR ANS WESTERN ST CROIX ARE FORECAST 1 - 2
INCHES...WHILE THE WESTERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PR ARE
FORECAST UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID...THE LOCAL RAINFALL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE
TRACK OF PHILIPPE...AS THE STORM WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE
5-DAY PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PR...THOUGH THE NORTHERN USVI ARE NOT
FAR BEHIND.

THE LOCAL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY TODAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT WINDS COULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. THE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS PHILIPPE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY...THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PR EACH
AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING DEEP MOISTURE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS WHY THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT WITH MAX DAILY VALUES OF
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. 

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...MOST OF THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE...WITH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4 TO
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 INCHES FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...NEAR
4 TO 4.5 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN USVI...AND BETWEEN 2 - 4 INCHES
FOR ST CROIX.


ALAMO...WPC (USA)