TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 24 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...CAUSING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...TURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS GENERAL WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH WITH EACH PASSING DAY...WHILE A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE MID LEVELS...A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING EAST. THIS MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE STABILITY TO INCREASE AND A TRADE WIND
INVERSION ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PATCHES OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT DUE TO THE TRADE WIND INVERSION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRAGMENTING TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN PERHAPS
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX VALUES BETWEEN 10-15MM...BUT MUCH DRIER FOR
SATURDAY...THEN SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS COULD BE OBSERVED ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL WITH MAXIMAS OF AROUND 10MM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SEE SOME RAIN EACH DAY. THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERSISTENT BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...CAUSING RAINFALL OF ABOUT 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 15
OR 20MM EACH DAY EXCEPT SUNDAY...WHEN MAX RAIN OF 10MM IS EXPECTED.

MOST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER... PARTS OF VERACRUZ...PUEBLA AND CHIAPAS MAY
OBSERVE RAINFALL EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND...WITH TOTALS NEAR 10-15MM
WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 25MM IN THE SOUTHERN STATES...WHILE AN ISOLATED
AREA NEAR VERACRUZ AND PUEBLA COULD OBSERVE AS MUCH AS 35MM
TODAY...BUT MAX OF 25MM ARE IN FACT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE EAST WILL BE
AFFECTING NICARAGUA..AND SEA BREEZE CAUSING CONVERGENCE OVER
GUATEMALA...ALONG WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW OVER COSTA RICA INTO
PANAMA...THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BETWEEN
05-10 MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. SLIGHTLY MORE RAIN..UP TO
20MM POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO BE
EXPECTED FROM NORTHWESTERN PERU INTO ECUADOR AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA...THEN ALSO ACROSS BRAZIL ALONG THE NET...WHILE THE
GUIANAS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...FRENCH GUIANA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA...EVERY
DAY THOSE SECTORS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL. ECUADOR AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE NEAR 10-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 25-50MM. THE
AMAZONAS STATE IN BRAZIL EAST INTO THE GUIANAS  WILL OBSERVE
GENERALLY 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 15 AND 35MM EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF THE BRAZILIAN STATES...SOUTHERN
AMAZONAS...PARA...AND AMAPA MAY OBSERVE UP TO 50MM TODAY...THEN
EASTERN PARA AND AMAPA COULD OBSERVE UP TO 50MM ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS WELL.


ALAMO...WPC (USA)