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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1857Z Feb 20, 2024)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 20 FEB 2024 AT 1700 UTC: A POTENT TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA...FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH ASSOCIATES WITH A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR 30N 72W AND IS EXTENDING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
BASIN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WHILE ACCOMPANIED BY A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE. IN
TERMS OF FRONTAL POSITIONS...BY TUESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...FAR
SOUTHEAST CUBA...EAST JAMAICA...NORTHEAST NICARAGUA...INTO A
WEAKENING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INTO A FRONTALIZING BOUNDARY ACROSS 15N 75W AND CENTRAL
COSTA RICA. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO 15N 69W. REGARDING THE SHEARLINE...BY TUESDAY EVENING
IT IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA...SOUTHERN HAITI. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO
THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION. BY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE ISLA MARGARITA REGION.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO CLUSTER IN COSTA
RICA...WHERE THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL JET-INDUCED CONVERGENCE WILL
FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. IN BOCAS DEL TORO EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE FRONT WILL ALSO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. ENHANCED BY THE
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SQUALLY
CONVECTION. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA WITH THE
SHEAR LINE. EXPECT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
IN EAST COSTA RICA AND BOCAS DEL TORO IN PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL AND OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHERE THE FRONT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI.
EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION...AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE SANTANDERES IN COLOMBIA. BY THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE SHEAR LINE CONVECTION
FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

OTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
BASINS OF ECUADOR AND NORTHWEST PERU. EASTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR VENTILATING DEEP CONVECTION
WITH RESPECT WITH PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER DIVERGENT TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE...FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...THE ACTIVATION OF BOTH BRANCHES OF THE ITCZ WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION.
AIDED BY LONG-FETCH WESTERLIES...THIS WILL FAVOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN ECUADOR AND
NORTHWEST PERU WITH A RISK FOR MCS...ALTHOUGH IN NORTHWEST ECUADOR
MAXIMA OF 60-125MM IS POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN FAR NORTHWEST
PERU AND WESTERN ECUADOR. ON THURSDAY EXPECT A DECREASE TO MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM IN WESTERN ECUADOR AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHWEST
PERU.

POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 21/00 21/12 22/00 22/12 23/00 23/12
EW   12N  28W  32W   35W   38W   41W   43W   46W  

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 28W AND SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST BRASIL BY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IT COULD REACH THE GUIANAS BY FRIDAY.

GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)