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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1046Z Mar 25, 2019)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
646 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2019

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAR 25/06
UTC: MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...FAVORING AN ELEVATED TRADE WINDS CAP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...THE 7.3 MICRON WV IMAGES SHOW A
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...FAVORS A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE OVER HISPANIOLA AND ALONG A
MEANDERING FRONT TO NORTH.

CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
GRADUAL EROSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ENVELOPING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...WITH A DEEPENING POLAR
TROUGH  TO GRADUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER MOST OF THE
BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE PATTERN SETTLES...JET MAXIMA
ARE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...WITH ONE MOVING
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
MAXIMA FOLLOWS... ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS
THEY STREAM TO THE NORTH...DIVERGENCE ON THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGIONS WILL VENT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AT LOW LEVELS...POLAR FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN USA WILL PRESS
AGAINST A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE
YIELDS...A LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS ARE TO EMBED IN THIS FLOW...AND
FROM TIME-TO-TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATER IN THE WEEK...AS POLAR TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTENSIFIES...IT IS TO INDUCE AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWARD DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE MOIST INFLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH MOISTURE CONVERGING
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND. THE AREAS
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  COINCIDES WITH REGIONS OF MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF GDI FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS A RESULT...EXPECTING GENERALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO CONFINE TO NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA
STREAMING FAR TO THE NORTH.

DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)