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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1114Z Sep 24, 2018)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
714 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018

COR DTG

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP 24/06
UTC: A WELL ORGANIZED TUTT LOW IS INITIALIZED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION SHOWING IN ALL OF THE WV
CHANNELS OF THE GOES-16. THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY LIES ON THE
CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS...HOWEVER...WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH TUTT LOW TO MEANDER
WEST ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. IN
RESPONSE...PWAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE GDI INCREASES TO 35 ON TUESDAY...WHILE ON
WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 45. THIS WILL SUSTAIN AN
INCREASED RISK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS HIGHLY
PROBABLE.

IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADES...EXPECTING NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION TO PESTER THE VIRGIN ISLES AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST
ACTIVE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TO CLUSTER
BETWEEN COROZAL/NARANJITO-COMERIO AND JUNCOS-TRUJILLO ALTO...WITH
DAILY MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES HIGHLY PROBABLE. MIDAFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS TO ALSO CLUSTER ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

LATER IN THE WEEK...TD KIRK IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ITS IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW INTENSE/ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM IS AS IT ENTERS THE
BASIN. AS A RESULT...THE UNCERTAINTY DURING THE MEDIUM-LONG RANGE
PERIOD IS HIGH...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW.

DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)