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South American Forecast Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1842Z Jul 24, 2024)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2024

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 24 JUL 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENT CONTINUES TO SEE A DRY TREND ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BECOME DRY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TROPICAL
SOUTH AMERICA REGION WILL REMAIN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTION...WITH THE PASSING OF WAVES AND TROUGHS ALONG THE
ITCZ...WHICH IS LOCATED FURTHER NORTH OF THE FORECAST REGION. EVEN
WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE WAVES...SCATTERED MAXIMA IN
COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND THE GUIANAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 25MM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

ON WEDNESDAY IN EAST ARGENTINA AND INTO URUGUAY...THE PRESENCE OF
THE SALLJ AND INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW INTO
ARGENTINA...PARAGUAY...AND URUGUAY WILL ASSIST IN THE TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO EAST ARGENTINA AND URUGUAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM BUENOS AIRES INTO URUGUAY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL FAVOR ASCENT IN THE REGION. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN SANTA FE...INTO ENTRE RIOS...AND BUENOS
AIRES ON WEDNESDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN URUGUAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BOTH REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. FROM THURSDAY...THE
PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES OVER ARGENTINA AND
URUGUAY AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH ON FRIDAY THERE
IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MOST OF THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHERN CONE OF THE CONTINENT...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...FROM LOS LAGOS TO
AYSEN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH THE INCREASED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENTERING THE CONTINENT. TO THE NORTH AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE REGIONS...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. ON
THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
SOUTHERN CHILE...AN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER
THE REGION...FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CHILE SUR...WITH
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO CHILE AND ARGENTINA...AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER ARE DECREASING...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM ARACAUNIA TO
NORTH MAGALLANES WITH CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ACOSTA...(WPC)