TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 26 JUL 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
CURRENTLY...LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS..SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.. AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE
TRAVERSING HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
IS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL MOISTURE CONTENT.
HOWEVER...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED TO A RELATIVELY DENSE PLUME OF
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN
REGION. THIS DUST PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE COMING DAYS...NOTABLY IMPACTING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE
BAHAMAS THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWER CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN
DUST MAY ALSO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...BY SUNDAY...MOST AREAS IN
THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
DECREASE IN THE MOISTURE LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DUE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE REGION.ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS OVER MEXICO...COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WILL SUSTAIN
ONGOING RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN
THE FOLLOWING DAYS. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FACILITATE THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A MAXIMUM OF 30-70MM IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TYPICAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION IS
FORECAST.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS OBSERVED AND IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN CENTRAL CUBA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED
IN THIS AREA...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER CUBA ON FRIDAY COULD
LEAD TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE BAHAMAS...AND IN CENTRAL CUBA...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PHASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE REGION...FAVORING THE
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...A ROBUST
HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRADE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW AND ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...IS FUELING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. THE PANAMANIAN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IN THE COMING DAYS. MOREOVER...IT IS CAUSING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED OVER PANAMA ON SATURDAY...AND WILL LATER PROPAGATE
TOWARDS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...WHERE THEY CAN EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. IN CENTRAL AMERICA...ÂCOSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION...AS THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH
COMBINES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL FAVOR A
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVE
CLOSER TO NICARAGUA...AND NORTHEAST HONDURAS FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...A MAXIMUM OF 40-80MM IS EXPECTED. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
BE SUBSTANTIAL.

IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A MAXIMUM OF 45MM FROM NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.ÂACROSS VENEZUELA...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
SUPPORT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL
WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMUM OF 40-80MM ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER VENEZUELA FAVORING A MAXIMA OF
50MM.

LEDESMA...(WPC)
ACOSTA...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
CLARKE...(CINWS)