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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1539Z Jun 05, 2020)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1139 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2020

AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL CENTERED AT 20.0N 89.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE OF 30KT WITH GUSTS OF 40KT...AND
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA. CRISTOBAL WAS MOVING TO THE
NORTH OR AT 360 DEGREES AT 10KT. PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WEBSITE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM JUNE 05/18 UTC: THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST
CONTINUES BEING TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...WHICH IS MEANDERING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SATELLITE
EVOLUTION...OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE CORE
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FOCUS IN THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BAND
CONVECTION IN THE PERIPHERY OF CRISTOBAL. STILL...PERIODS OF
HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC BASIN
OF CHIAPAS AND GUATEMALA THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE WE REACH NEXT
WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH OVER THE AMERICAS...FAVORING TO THE RETURN OF MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH REGARD TO CRISTOBAL AND
THE CAG...ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN FEEDER BAND CONVECTION IN WESTERN CHIAPAS AND
SOUTHWEST GUATEMALA WHERE AMOUNTS WILL REACH 50-100MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 125-200MM. LARGE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL...TO REACH 25-50MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 125-200MM. IN TABASCO/CAMPECHE/NORTHERN CHIAPAS
AND NORTHERN PETEN IN GUATEMALA EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN EL
SALVADOR/GULF OF FONSECA REGION FOR ONE ADDITIONAL DAY...TO
SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. BY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO CLUSTER IN FEEDER
BAND CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...INCLUDING EXTREME WESTERN PINAR DEL RIO IN CUBA.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. A SECONDARY
AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC BASINS OF
CHIAPAS AND GUATEMALA WHERE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT WILL
SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. TAPERING CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PETEN IN GUATEMALA WILL SUSTAIN
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. THE EFFECTS OF CRISTOBAL WILL
BE VERY LIMITED INSIDE THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EXTREME WESTERN CUBA TO SUSTAIN
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN FEEDER BAND CONVECTION.
OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUSTAIN SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ON THE PACIFIC BASIN OF CHIAPAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS.

NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...IN MEXICO...DOMINANT UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CRISTOBAL IS
GRADUALLY DECREASING...TO ALLOW AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION
IN CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. ON THE EXPECTED 24-HOUR
ACCUMULATIONS...IN NORTHEAST MEXICO EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM ON A DAILY BASIS. IN OAXACA/SIERRA MADRE
DEL SUR OF GUERRERO...EXPECTING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM ON THURSDAY AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. THIS SPREADS INTO
THE EJE VOLCANICO ON SATURDAY TO SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM. AN ACTIVATION IS ALSO EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN EJE
VOLCANICO IN MICHOACAN/JALISCO/AGUASCALIENTES ON SATURDAY...YET
EXPECTING MAXIMA NEAR 10MM/DAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF SINALOA ON SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EJE
VOLCANICO CENTRAL TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. IN THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...MOSTLY FOCUSING IN
SINALOA/DURANGO.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY ENHANCED IN WESTERN/CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND WEST/CENTRAL
COSTA RICA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ON
THURSDAY...15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON FRIDAY...AND
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. IN PANAMA...EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES FROM COLOMBIA...TO SUSTAIN A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ANDFAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA IN
THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
THROUGH SATURDAY...DECREASING AFTER.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL/CAG CONTINUES SUSTAINING AN
UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXTENDING EAST INTO
CUBA/JAMAICA. THIS IS INDUCING A TROUGH TO THE WEST...WHICH
EXTENDS ITS AXIS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO SUSTAIN MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. AS THE
RIDGE PERSISTS AND BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO CUBA/BAHAMAS BY
SATURDAY...IT WILL PRESS ON THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ELONGATE IT
INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL...HOWEVER...HAVE
LIMITED INFLUENCE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE...WHICH WILL LIMIT ITS
EFFECTS ON CONVECTION IN THE BASIN...WITH ITS EFFECTS MAINLY
FOCUSING IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. MORE SO...CONVECTION COVERAGE
AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER. ON FRIDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS IN
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WHERE ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...SOUTHEAST CUBA AND THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY SATURDAY...A NEW TROPICAL
WAVE TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. IN THE GREATER
ANTILLES...EXPECTING MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 15MM/DAY IN PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEAST CUBA. LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN WESTERN CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEEDER BAND CONVECTION RELATED
TO CRISTOBAL. AMOUNTS IN WESTERN PINAR DEL RIO COULD REACH
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM...WHILE OTHER AREAS OF WESTERN
CUBA WILL REMAIN UNDER 15-20MM/DAY. BY SUNDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN CUBA IN FEEDER BAND CONVECTION...WHICH
WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...EXPECTING
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION TO SUSTAIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ON SUNDAY THIS SIGNIFIES 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO...AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION HAS ACTIVATED IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AS THE ITCZ INTERACTS WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALSO ON
FRIDAY...CONVECTION IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
TROPICAL WAVE...TO SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN
EASTERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY TO SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. TO THE EAST...ACROSS THE GUIANAS...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE FROM FRENCH GUIANA INTO
SURINAME...BUT THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
SUSTAIN MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 15 MM/DAY. BY SATURDAY...TROPICAL
WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND THE EJE CAFETERO TO SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN THE SANTANDERES AND EXTREME WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. TO THE
EAST...TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATES ACROSS GUYANA/EASTERN VENEZUELA
AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA...IN RORAIMA AND IN SOUTHEAST
VENEZUELA WHERE EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND EASTERN
COLOMBIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCEMENT BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN GUIANAS...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15MM. ITCZ MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA IN BRASIL WILL
SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BY SUNDAY...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED CENTRAL VENEZUELA/RORAIMA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN EASTERN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA EXPECTING MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO PRODUCE SIMILAR
AMOUNTS.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES BASED ON 00UTC ON JUNE 05:
=============================================
TYPE OF WAVE AND FORECAST LONGITUDE
=============================================
TYPE - F12  F24  F36  F48  F60  F72  F84  F96
TW   - 30W  33W  35W  38W  40W  43W  46W  49W            
TW   - 50W  53W  56W  60W  64W  67W  70W  73W
TW   - 66W  70W  74W  77W  79W  82W  85W  88W
=============================================

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 30W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST AREAS DURING THE
NEXT FOUR DAYS...AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS OPEN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 50W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N.
CROSS THE GUIANAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT MAXIMA TO 15MM IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GUIANAS...WHILE IN SOUTHERN GUYANA IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE WAVE ARRIVES INTO
CENTRAL VENEZUELA/RORAIMA...WHERE EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 66W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. THE
WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS EASTERN COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY TO SUSTAIN
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ON
SATURDAY...IT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA TO SUSTAIN
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON SUNDAY...IT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO SUSTAIN ALSO MAXIMA IN THE 15-30MM/DAY RANGE.

GALVEZ/DAVISON...WPC (USA)