TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 03 OCT 2024 AT 1945 UTC:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING HURRICANE KIRK
AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BOTH OF WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE NHC IS STILL ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E...WHICH IS LOCATED AT AROUND 95 MILES EAST OF
PUERTO ANGEL IN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS ELEVEN-E MOVING NORTHEAST AND REACHING LAND BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WEAKENING QUICKLY THEREAFTER AND DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA...WITH OUR 3-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 100-150MM OVER SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...EASTERN OAXACA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE SURROUNDING AREAS
COULD OBSERVE NEAR 25-10OMM. FOR THE OFFICIAL AND LATEST FORECAST
ON ELEVEN-E PLEASE SEE THE ADVISORIES AND OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE
NHC AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.  

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT...BUT IT
IS CLOSER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN AS OF LATE. THAT BEING SAID...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...THOUGH IT IS NOT SURPRISING AS THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES
INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER. REGARDLESS OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF ELEVEN-E...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REST OF TODAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
HAVE MORE RAIN OVER THAT AREA COMPARED TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL FORECAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
LOCALIZED MAXIMA NEAR 150MM TODAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO...PARTICULARLY OVER ISOLATED SECTIONS OF EASTERN VERACRUZ
AND GUERRERO...WITH MAXIMA UP TO AROUND 50MM OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. ISOLATED MAX VALUES UP TO AROUND
50MM ARE SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER SOUTHERN VERACRUZ ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND ISOLATED MAXIMA UP TO AROUND 45MM
SUGGESTED ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF
GUERRERO AND OAXACA. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY...AND ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ADDS TO THE
OVERALL COMPLEXITY IN THE AREA SURROUNDING SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE
IS A SFC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF...AND PREVAILING LIGHTER
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BROADEN ITS CIRCULATION AND DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WITH ITS CENTER AND BROAD CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE DEEP
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND THE WIND FLOW WILL CAUSE
INTERACTIONS WITH THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 

THE CARIBBEAN REGION IS STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE RELATIVELY MODEST
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH MOST OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES OBSERVING DAILY MAX RAINFALL OF NO MORE THAN 15-25MM PER
DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES DUE TO LOCALIZED INDUCED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS. ONE MORE EXCEPTION IS WESTERN
CUBA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD BE NEAR 25-50MM IN SOME AREAS OF WESTERN CUBA. THE
LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE GENERALLY BRIEF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ACCUMULATING 10MM OR LESS EACH
DAY. THE EGDI ALGORITHM ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A FEW AREAS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES IN THE
AFTERNOONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE THE LESSER ANTILLES
COULD OBSERVE GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION ACCORDING TO THE
ALGORITHM.

ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE LATEST ANALYSIS STILL SUGGESTS
THAT THERE ARE A FEW LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA...THAT WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHY...COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT IN THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. BUT THE EGDI OUTPUT AND THE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...COMPARED WITH THE LATEST MODEL
INITIALIZATION WERE CONSIDERED TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WOULD HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS ARE NOT SPECTACULAR FOR ANY PARTICULAR THUNDERSTORM
ENHANCEMENT...HOWEVER. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MOISTURE...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES
CONSIDERED...MOST OF THE AREAS IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ARE
FORECAST MAX DAILY TOTALS BETWEEN 20-45MM. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO WESTERN
BRAZIL...WITH MAX VALUES OF 20-45MM IN THE FORECAST. ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WESTERN VENEZUELA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE
FORECAST MAX VALUES ALSO OF 20-45MM...WHILE 35MM OR LESS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE. THEN ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MOST OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERALLY FORECAST 35MM OR LESS...BUT A
SMALL PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST UP TO 50MM DUE TO A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FROM FROM
THE PACIFIC...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE LOCAL
TERRAIN.


ALAMO...(WPC)