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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1249Z Feb 08, 2023)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EST WED FEB 08 2023

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB
07/12UTC: A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A COLD FRONT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CAUSING
WINDS TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WOULD HAVE AN AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND 500MB TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...AT
-10 TO -11 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT IN THE BEST LOCATION TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...THAT SAID...THE TRADE WIND CAP WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
NON-EXISTENT FROM TODAY ONWARD. A TROUGH AT 250 HPA WILL DEVELOP
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND IT COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF PR/VI WHERE THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

FOR TODAY...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
POSSIBLY REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AVER A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN PR...WHILE
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR...GENERALLY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND WARM WATERS. THE
USVI WOULD EXPECT AROUND A TENTH OR LESS OF RAIN...WITH SIMILAR
ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UP AND DOWN AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH...CAUSING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.2 INCHES OR SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS WESTERN PR. TRADE WINDS SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY BUT THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AT THIS TIME...TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN
WITH MAX TOTALS NEAR A HALF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE EACH DAY...THEN LESSER AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 


ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)