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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1128Z Aug 15, 2018)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
728 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG 15/06
UTC: TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY TO POSITION OVER HISPANIOLA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. AS IT CROSSES PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT-LIVED AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CORDILLERA PUERTO RICO TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 1-1.5 INCHES. AS THE TUTT RETROGRESSES...IT WILL
CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH A MOIST PLUME THAT EXTENDS JUST EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE A TUTT-INDUCED PERTURBATION HAS
UNDULATED IN THE TRADES. THE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN
THE ISLANDS LATE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY TRAILING MOIST PLUME.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHEN
EXPECTING SCATTERED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5-2 INCHES IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CORDILLERA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE
ISLANDS EARLY ON FRIDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...YET...IT WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PEAK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHEN EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN
MAXIMA. A SHARP DRYING TREND FOLLOWS.

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)