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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1949Z Feb 07, 2023)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2023

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 07 FEBRUARY 2023 AT 1845 UTC: ON
TUESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EAST
TEXAS...COAHUILA...AND NUEVO LEON...PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA..GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTO TAMAULIPAS/VERACRUZ ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS COLD AIR INTERACTS WITH THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE COASTS OF TAMAULIPAS AND
VERACRUZ. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER
VERACRUZ...WHERE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TODAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE COAST OF MEXICO...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH A
MAXIMA OF 15MM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
IS OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH ITS
AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER VERTICAL
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS...GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEASONAL
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF
15MM IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...NORTHEAST
CUBA...JAMAICA...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND NORTH OF CUBA. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR
LINE ADVANCES INTO PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE WE
EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST CUBA WITH 05-10MM/DAY WITH A
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND JAMAICA ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM.

EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING LOW LEVEL JETS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY. THE JETS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SOUTH...INTO PANAMA. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS...INCREASING SHOWERS IN THE
AREA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY...EAST
YUCATAN...BELIZE...EASTERN GUATEMALA...NORTHEAST HONDURAS...EAST
NICARAGUA...AND THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA...IS FORECAST TO
SEE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THESE AREAS WILL SEE AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA OF COSTA
RICA AND IN AND AROUND BOCAS DEL TORO AREA IN PANAMA...ARE
FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM TODAY. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS AREA IS FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-30MM.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE NET IS AFFECTING THE MAJORITY OF
THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRAZIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS
OF COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND WESTERN VENEZUELA COULD EXPERIENCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-45MM...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA...SOUTH VENEZUELA...SOUTHEAST
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN BRAZIL. NORTHERN GUYANA...AND THE COASTAL
NORTHEAST PORTION OF VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO SEE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM TODAY.  A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER
THE AREA IS 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. WESTERN
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND ECUADOR...ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE
05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH THE 3-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.


ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)