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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1239Z Feb 06, 2023)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
739 AM EST MON FEB 06 2023

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB
06/12UTC: A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...WHILE ALSO
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING WINDS NEAR 20KT. A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND 500MB
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...AT -10 TO -11 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH DOES NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...THAT SAID...THE TRADE WIND CAP WILL BE ERODED FOR THE
MOST PART FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. A TROUGH AT 250 HPA WILL DEVELOP
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND IT COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF PR/VI.

FOR TODAY...DRIER THAN NORMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.2 INCHES IN THE
MORNING BUT COULD BE AS LOW AS 1.0 INCHES BY THE MID MORNING HOURS
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL INCREASE AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.2 INCHES OR
SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS AN INCREASE FROM TODAY BUT
STILL NEAR NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAP ON
TUESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE VI...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL TODAY...BUT TUESDAY CAN HAVE MAX TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH
OF RAIN...WITH A DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER INCREASE IN
RAIN ON THURSDAY.


ALAMO/ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)